Industry ยท Oct 2026
Packaged Foods stocks ranked by gap to the model's fair value
Faircurve's model values 19 packaged foods stocks. 15 of them are ranked below by the gap between the model's fair value and the last close, as of 31 Oct 2026: 2 read as Undervalued, 13 as Fairly valued and 0 as Overvalued. The median gap across the ranked names is +0.3%. The widest gaps above the price are PPC (+17.5%), CENT (+15.3%), INGR (+10.0%). The widest below it are CPB (-9.8%), SMPL (-9.5%), MKC (-6.1%).
Valuations as of . Prices are the closes of 3 Nov 2026. The gap is the model's fair value against the price: a positive gap means the fair value is above the price. It states what the model concluded, not where the price goes next.
The ranking
| Rank | Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict | Quality score | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.28 | $32.05 | +17.5% | Undervalued | 46 | $6.8B |
| 2 | CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $46.35 | $53.45 | +15.3% | Undervalued | 61 | $2.5B |
| 3 | INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $96.78 | $106.41 | +10.0% | Fairly valued | 60 | $6.1B |
| 4 | CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.87 | $42.57 | +6.8% | Fairly valued | 57 | $2.5B |
| 5 | SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $127.98 | $132.86 | +3.8% | Fairly valued | 49 | $13.9B |
| 6 | HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $21.26 | $22.05 | +3.7% | Fairly valued | 59 | $11.7B |
| 7 | GIS General Mills, Inc. | $34.08 | $34.93 | +2.5% | Fairly valued | 40 | $18.3B |
| 8 | LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $54.92 | $55.08 | +0.3% | Fairly valued | 58 | $7.5B |
| 9 | JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | $87.01 | $85.42 | -1.8% | Fairly valued | 57 | $1.6B |
| 10 | CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $14.41 | $14.13 | -1.9% | Fairly valued | 38 | $7.0B |
| 11 | FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $69.60 | $67.18 | -3.5% | Fairly valued | 51 | $3.3B |
| 12 | KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | $24.52 | $23.21 | -5.3% | Fairly valued | 38 | $28.9B |
| 13 | MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $47.88 | $44.95 | -6.1% | Fairly valued | 64 | $12.7B |
| 14 | SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | $12.47 | $11.29 | -9.5% | Fairly valued | 42 | $977M |
| 15 | CPB Campbell Soup Company | $21.96 | $19.81 | -9.8% | Fairly valued | 50 | $6.4B |
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's market note, in your inbox each market day
The Global Pulse is Faircurve's note after each US session: what moved, in plain words. No account needed.
Valued but not ranked
These 4 names are valued but not ranked, for one of four reasons: the model grades the evidence as low or has not graded it yet, the inputs are under review, the gap is wider than 60%, or the valuation is more than three weeks old. The numbers are shown for reference.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Why it is not ranked | Quality score | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | $9.42 | $10.33 | +9.7% | Low evidence grade | 84 | $1.1B |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | $6.72 | $6.36 | -5.4% | Low evidence grade | 48 | $1.3B |
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | $52.59 | $60.41 | +14.9% | Data under review | 65 | $630M |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $83.12 | $90.07 | +8.4% | Low evidence grade | 61 | $3.7B |