NYSE: LW · Packaged Foods
Lamb Weston (LW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Lamb Weston (LW) at $55.08 a share. The stock last closed at $55.08, which puts the model's fair value in line with the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $55.08, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $55.08 is level with it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 18 Dec 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 10% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LW?
The calibrated range for LW over 63 trading days is $49.22 to $63.24. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LW's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.61 to $81.30. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations run across four segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value at $55.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $54.73, so the model's fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $49.22 to $63.24, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. The range is calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 57 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 95, with free cash flow at 2.00x net income. The balance sheet scores 25, with net debt at 4.09x EBITDA against a peer median of 3.89x. The model compares the company with Conagra Brands, Pilgrim's Pride, Campbell Soup, Ingredion, Hormel Foods, McCormick and The J. M. Smucker Company.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lamb Weston's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LW's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.9% over one month.
On 2 Nov 2026 LW moved 4.6% in one session, against the 2.2% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LW's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LW
How does LW score on business quality?
Lamb Weston's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 54 | 6.6%ROIC | 4.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 2.00xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 47 | 2.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 53 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 4.09xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.89x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 51 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does LW compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Lamb Weston in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $15.51 | $14.13 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $28.62 | $32.05 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $23.43 | $19.81 | -15.5% | Overvalued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $97.42 | $106.41 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $22.60 | $23.64 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $50.06 | $44.95 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $133.25 | $132.86 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $84.72 | $90.07 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LW, the peer-implied price, is $58.34 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Lamb Weston at a glance
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other.
- Market value
- $7.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. LW was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lamb Weston on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LW was $54.73. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $55.08, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lamb Weston's valuation
Is Lamb Weston stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LW reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $55.08 a share against a last close of $55.08, a gap of 0.0%.
What is LW's fair value?
$55.08 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.61 to $81.30.
What price range does the model give LW?
$49.22 to $63.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Lamb Weston report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -27.9% around the report of 19 Dec 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LW
The model holds no idea open on LW today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LW with their outcomes. A free account is enough.