NASDAQ: FRPT · Packaged Foods
Freshpet (FRPT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Freshpet (FRPT) at $67.18 a share. The stock last closed at $64.82, which puts the model's fair value 3.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Freshpet, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $64.62 to $67.18 (+4.0%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $64.82 is 3.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 22 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FRPT?
The calibrated range for FRPT over 63 trading days is $55.99 to $77.59. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that FRPT's own options imply (49% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $40.90 to $106.68. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Freshpet, Inc. makes natural, fresh, ready-to-eat food and treats for dogs and cats. It sells them in the United States, Canada and Europe.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Freshpet at $67.18 a share on 31 Oct 2026. It moved +4.0% from $64.62 on 24 Oct 2026. The model's reason: the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $61.44 to $85.58, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, comparable agreement and outcome spread. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On quality, Freshpet scores 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. Capital discipline is highest at 84, with net buybacks of 1.6% against a peer median of 0.9%. Stability is lowest at 20, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 4.9 points against a peer median of 1.2 points. The model compares it with Central Garden & Pet, Ingredion, Campbell Soup, Pilgrim's Pride, J&J Snack Foods and Conagra Brands.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FRPT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Freshpet's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. FRPT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.2% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 FRPT moved 9.1% in one session, against the 3.2% a day that options had priced: 2.9 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FRPT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in FRPT
How does FRPT score on business quality?
Freshpet's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 49 | 7.5%ROIC | 7.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 33 | 0.83xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 67 | 13.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 84 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 0.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 20 | 4.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does FRPT compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Freshpet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $84.72 | $90.07 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $47.94 | $53.45 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $41.08 | $42.57 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $97.42 | $106.41 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $23.43 | $19.81 | -15.5% | Overvalued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $28.62 | $32.05 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| JJSF J&J Snack Foods Corp. | $91.13 | $85.42 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $15.51 | $14.13 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FRPT, the peer-implied price, is $63.29 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Freshpet at a glance
Freshpet, Inc. produces and distributes natural, fresh, and ready-to-eat food and treats specifically formulated for dogs and cats. These products are available to consumers throughout the United States, Canada, and Europe.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FRPT was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Freshpet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FRPT was $64.62. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $67.18, a change of +4.0%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Freshpet's valuation
Is Freshpet stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FRPT reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $67.18 a share against a last close of $64.82, a gap of +3.6%.
What is FRPT's fair value?
$67.18 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $40.90 to $106.68.
What price range does the model give FRPT?
$55.99 to $77.59 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Freshpet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FRPT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -23.2% around the report of 20 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FRPT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FRPT
The model holds no idea open on FRPT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FRPT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.