NASDAQ: CPB · Packaged Foods
Campbell Soup (CPB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Campbell Soup (CPB) at $15.76 a share. The stock last closed at $19.62, which puts the model's fair value 19.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Campbell Soup Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Campbell Soup Company is a leading international producer and marketer of a wide variety of food and beverage products through its Meals & Beverages and Snacks divisions.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $15.76 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -17.9% from $19.19 on the previous run on 19 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $18.06 to $22.68, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The company has an overall quality score of 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC), Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), and Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -10.1% to +3.8%, with a median size of 5.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CPB?
The calibrated range for CPB over 63 trading days is $18.06 to $22.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CPB's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $9.85 to $22.24. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CPB score on business quality?
Campbell Soup's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 43 | 6.0%ROIC | 10.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.68xFCF / net income | 0.71x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 13 | -5.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 20 | 5.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.28x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does CPB compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Campbell Soup in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $43.60 | $46.03 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $95.33 | $105.71 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.50 | $32.30 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $13.36 | $17.18 | +28.6% | Data under review |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | $62.94 | $65.99 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $72.56 | $79.67 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $20.25 | $19.82 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $60.26 | $58.08 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
When does CPB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Campbell Soup's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CPB's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.3% over one month.
How CPB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | -10.1% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | +2.1% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | -12.3% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | -6.2% |
| 3 Sep 2025 | +3.8% |
| 2 Jun 2025 | +0.6% |
| 5 Mar 2025 | -1.3% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | -7.7% |
Campbell Soup at a glance
Campbell Soup Company (CPB) is a leading international producer and marketer of a wide variety of food and beverage products. The enterprise conducts its business through two main operational divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks.
- Market value
- $5.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -2.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Campbell Soup on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CPB was $19.19. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $15.76, a change of -17.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Campbell Soup's valuation
Is Campbell Soup stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CPB reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $15.76 a share against a last close of $19.62, a gap of -19.7%.
What is CPB's fair value?
$15.76 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $9.85 to $22.24.
What price range does the model give CPB?
$18.06 to $22.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Campbell Soup report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CPB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.3% around the report of 11 Mar 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CPB is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.