NYSE: SAM · Alcoholic Beverages
Boston Beer (SAM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 5 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Boston Beer (SAM) at $238.36 a share. The stock last closed at $224.97, which puts the model's fair value 6.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 5 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $213.07 to $238.36 (+11.9%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $224.97 is 6.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 2 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SAM?
The calibrated range for SAM over 63 trading days is $201.23 to $258.01. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SAM's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $190.11 to $299.82. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 5 Nov 2026
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is a leading producer and marketer of alcoholic beverages, primarily focused on the United States market. Its most recognized offering is Samuel Adams Boston Lager.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $238.36 a share on 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $213.07, so the fair value moved +11.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $206.54 to $258.24. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, with 6,661 past valuations refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 80 out of 100. Earnings quality and Balance sheet both score 100, with net debt to EBITDA at -12.51x against a peer median of 2.46x. Profitability scores 93, with ROIC at 20.7% against a peer median of 6.1%. The model compares the company with The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE), Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA), Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) and Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA).
Written from the figures on this page for the 5 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SAM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Boston Beer's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SAM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.8% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 SAM moved 6.0% in one session, against the 2.4% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SAM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SAM
How does SAM score on business quality?
Boston Beer's overall quality score is 80 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 20.7%ROIC | 6.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 44 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 87 | 5.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -12.51xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 51 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does SAM compare with similar companies?
The companies in alcoholic beverages closest to Boston Beer in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | $42.23 | $43.99 | +4.2% | Low evidence grade |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | $144.56 | $155.94 | +7.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | $55.16 | $72.68 | +31.8% | Undervalued |
| NWL Newell Brands Inc. | $5.49 | $6.29 | +14.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PRDO Perdoceo Education Corporation | $26.55 | $37.04 | +39.5% | Undervalued |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | $41.08 | $42.57 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $47.94 | $53.45 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| STRA Strategic Education, Inc. | $58.47 | $82.60 | +41.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SAM, the peer-implied price, is $285.57 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Boston Beer at a glance
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading producer and marketer of alcoholic beverages, primarily focused on the United States market. Its most recognized offering is Samuel Adams Boston Lager.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.43
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SAM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Boston Beer on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SAM was $213.07. As of 5 Nov 2026 it is $238.36, a change of +11.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Boston Beer's valuation
Is Boston Beer stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SAM reads as Fairly valued as of 5 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $238.36 a share against a last close of $224.97, a gap of +6.0%.
What is SAM's fair value?
$238.36 a share as of 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $190.11 to $299.82.
What price range does the model give SAM?
$201.23 to $258.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Boston Beer report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SAM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.3% around the report of 22 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SAM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SAM
The model has an idea open on SAM under Quality Momentum since 2 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SAM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.