NYSE: TAP · Alcoholic Beverages
Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) at $35.79 a share. The stock last closed at $36.86, which puts the model's fair value 2.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Molson Coors Beverage Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Molson Coors Beverage Company is a global entity engaged in the production, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of beer and other malt-based beverages.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $35.79 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -5.1% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $37.70. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $30.03 to $43.64, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 35 out of 100, against comparable companies. These comparable companies include The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM), Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC), Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TAP?
The calibrated range for TAP over 63 trading days is $30.03 to $43.64. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $19.96 to $55.73. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TAP score on business quality?
Molson Coors Beverage's overall quality score is 35 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -13.5%ROIC | 6.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 27 | -4.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 51 | 8.2%Net buybacks / market value | 3.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -3.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.52x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 3 | 11.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does TAP compare with similar companies?
The companies in alcoholic beverages closest to Molson Coors Beverage in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | $112.87 | $134.54 | +19.2% | Low evidence grade |
| SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. | $167.50 | $175.82 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $13.36 | $17.18 | +28.6% | Data under review |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.50 | $32.30 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $26.75 | $28.11 | +5.1% | Data under review |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $95.33 | $105.71 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $43.60 | $46.03 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $104.68 | $95.41 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
When does TAP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Molson Coors Beverage's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How TAP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +3.6% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -0.6% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -5.0% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +4.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +3.3% |
| 8 May 2025 | -3.9% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +12.9% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +5.4% |
Molson Coors Beverage at a glance
Molson Coors Beverage Company is a global entity engaged in the production, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of beer and other malt-based beverages.
- Market value
- $6.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Alcoholic Beverages
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Molson Coors Beverage on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TAP was $37.70. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $35.79, a change of -5.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Molson Coors Beverage's valuation
Is Molson Coors Beverage stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TAP reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $35.79 a share against a last close of $36.86, a gap of -2.9%.
What is TAP's fair value?
$35.79 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $19.96 to $55.73.
What price range does the model give TAP?
$30.03 to $43.64 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Molson Coors Beverage report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TAP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.9% around the report of 13 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TAP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.