NASDAQ: SFNC · Regional Banks
Simmons First National (SFNC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Simmons First National (SFNC) at $20.44 a share. The stock last closed at $22.90, which puts the model's fair value 10.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Simmons First National Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Simmons First National Corporation serves as the parent organisation for Simmons Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of banking and financial solutions to both individual and business clients.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $20.44 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.9% since the previous run, which gave $20.05 on 19 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $17.15 to $24.92, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, calibrated weekly against realised prices from 4,327 past valuations. The model’s evidence grade is High.
The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 2.6% ignoring direction. These moves include -1.2% on 16 Jul 2026, +4.7% on 16 Apr 2026, +9.1% on 20 Jan 2026, and -3.7% on 16 Oct 2025. The model compares Simmons First National Corporation with First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC), Park National Corporation (PRK), Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU), CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF), BankUnited, Inc. (BKU), First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK), and BancFirst Corporation (BANF).
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SFNC?
The calibrated range for SFNC over 63 trading days is $17.15 to $24.92. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $18.84 to $22.21. In 10% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SFNC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Simmons First National in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFBC First Financial Bancorp. | $31.87 | $27.78 | -12.8% | Fairly valued |
| PRK Park National Corporation | $183.15 | $134.97 | -26.3% | Overvalued |
| CBU Community Bank System, Inc. | $60.69 | $40.50 | -33.3% | Overvalued |
| CVBF CVB Financial Corp. | $22.28 | $15.26 | -31.5% | Overvalued |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | $32.68 | $20.95 | -35.9% | Low evidence grade |
| BKU BankUnited, Inc. | $43.38 | $45.97 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FIBK First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | $36.00 | $27.90 | -22.5% | Overvalued |
| BANF BancFirst Corporation | $108.08 | $92.97 | -14.0% | Fairly valued |
When does SFNC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Simmons First National's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SFNC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +4.7% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | +9.1% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -3.7% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +2.9% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | -1.5% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -1.7% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | -2.3% |
Simmons First National at a glance
Simmons First National Corporation serves as the parent organization for Simmons Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of banking and financial solutions to both individual and business clients.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +60.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Simmons First National on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SFNC was $20.05. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $20.44, a change of +1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Simmons First National's valuation
Is Simmons First National stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SFNC reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $20.44 a share against a last close of $22.90, a gap of -10.7%.
What is SFNC's fair value?
$20.44 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $18.84 to $22.21.
What price range does the model give SFNC?
$17.15 to $24.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Simmons First National report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SFNC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.1% around the report of 20 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SFNC is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.