NYSE: SMP · Auto Parts
Standard Motor Products (SMP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Standard Motor Products (SMP) at $40.51 a share. The stock last closed at $37.52, which puts the model's fair value 8.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Standard Motor Products, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) specializes in the production and distribution of replacement automotive components for the aftermarket, facilitating vehicle maintenance, repair, and service.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $40.51 a share on 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $43.83, moving the fair value -7.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.99 to $49.39, built from the fair value, and has held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for the valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for Standard Motor Products, Inc. is 69 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Gentherm Incorporated (THRM), XPEL, Inc. (XPEL), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), and Visteon Corporation (VC). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 6.9%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SMP?
The calibrated range for SMP over 63 trading days is $33.99 to $49.39. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $26.05 to $57.33. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SMP score on business quality?
Standard Motor Products's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 82 | 9.7%ROIC | 6.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 58 | 1.71xFCF / net income | 1.45x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 22.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 3.14xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 73 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does SMP compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to Standard Motor Products in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | $18.65 | $16.67 | -10.6% | Low evidence grade |
| THRM Gentherm Incorporated | $31.30 | $37.37 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| XPEL XPEL, Inc. | $44.97 | $41.54 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| ADNT Adient plc | $17.31 | $28.41 | +64.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | $4.84 | $5.78 | +19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | $14.18 | $12.81 | -9.7% | Low evidence grade |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | $59.78 | $83.27 | +39.3% | Undervalued |
| VC Visteon Corporation | $88.77 | $113.16 | +27.5% | Undervalued |
When does SMP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Standard Motor Products's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How SMP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +2.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +4.4% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -7.9% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | -4.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +15.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +28.9% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -5.9% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +12.3% |
Standard Motor Products at a glance
Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) specializes in the production and distribution of replacement automotive components for the aftermarket, facilitating vehicle maintenance, repair, and service.
- Market value
- $839M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Standard Motor Products on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SMP was $43.83. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $40.51, a change of -7.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Standard Motor Products's valuation
Is Standard Motor Products stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SMP reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $40.51 a share against a last close of $37.52, a gap of +8.0%.
What is SMP's fair value?
$40.51 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $26.05 to $57.33.
What price range does the model give SMP?
$33.99 to $49.39 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Standard Motor Products report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SMP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +28.9% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SMP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.