NASDAQ: XPEL · Auto Parts
XPEL (XPEL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values XPEL (XPEL) at $41.54 a share. The stock last closed at $44.97, which puts the model's fair value 7.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. XPEL, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
XPEL, Inc. is a company that develops, manufactures, distributes, and installs a comprehensive range of aftermarket products primarily aimed at protecting and enhancing automotive vehicles, with select offerings for architectural applications. It is in the Consumer Cyclical, Auto Parts sector.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $41.54 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $42.46, so the fair value moved -2.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.85 to $50.65, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. Quality factors include Profitability 80, Earnings quality 36, Growth quality 81, Capital discipline 26, Balance sheet 84, and Stability 84. The model compares it with Gentherm Incorporated, Standard Motor Products, Inc., PHINIA Inc., and Visteon Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +28.8% to -20.6%, with a median size of 8.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give XPEL?
The calibrated range for XPEL over 63 trading days is $34.85 to $50.65. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $32.35 to $52.34. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does XPEL score on business quality?
XPEL's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 16.1%ROIC | 8.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | -0.06xFCF / net income | 0.97x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 81 | 13.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 26 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 84 | 0.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.54x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 84 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does XPEL compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to XPEL in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THRM Gentherm Incorporated | $31.30 | $37.37 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| ADNT Adient plc | $17.31 | $28.41 | +64.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | $4.84 | $5.78 | +19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | $37.52 | $40.51 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | $18.65 | $16.67 | -10.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | $59.78 | $83.27 | +39.3% | Undervalued |
| VC Visteon Corporation | $88.77 | $113.16 | +27.5% | Undervalued |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | $14.18 | $12.81 | -9.7% | Low evidence grade |
When does XPEL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
XPEL's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How XPEL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +3.9% |
| 6 May 2026 | -11.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -10.7% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +3.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +6.6% |
| 6 May 2025 | +28.8% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -20.6% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +6.2% |
XPEL at a glance
XPEL, Inc. is a company that develops, manufactures, distributes, and installs a comprehensive range of aftermarket products primarily aimed at protecting and enhancing automotive vehicles, with select offerings for architectural applications.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $574M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices XPEL on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for XPEL was $42.46. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $41.54, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about XPEL's valuation
Is XPEL stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, XPEL reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $41.54 a share against a last close of $44.97, a gap of -7.6%.
What is XPEL's fair value?
$41.54 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $32.35 to $52.34.
What price range does the model give XPEL?
$34.85 to $50.65 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does XPEL report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has XPEL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +28.8% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for XPEL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.