NASDAQ: TLN ยท Independent Power Producers
Talen Energy (TLN) fair value and price range
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Talen Energy (TLN) at $256.97 a share. The stock last closed at $299.97, which puts the model's fair value 14.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Talen Energy Corporation.
What price range does the model give TLN?
The calibrated range for TLN over 63 trading days is $265.04 to $378.93. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TLN's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $83.45 to $517.79. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TLN score on business quality?
Talen Energy's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 6 | 2.3%ROIC | 5.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 94 | 26.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 2.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 11.76xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 24.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.8 pts |
How does TLN compare with similar companies?
The companies in independent power producers closest to Talen Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $103.28 | $104.86 | +1.5% | Low model confidence |
| VST Vistra Corp. | $140.78 | $159.32 | +13.2% | Fairly valued |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $262.11 | $230.57 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | $40.48 | $40.38 | -0.2% | Fairly valued |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $93.31 | $111.84 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| AES The AES Corporation | $14.83 | $17.27 | +16.5% | Low model confidence |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | $64.97 | $62.84 | -3.3% | Fairly valued |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $79.26 | $77.58 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
When does TLN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Talen Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 10 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TLN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.6% over one month.
How TLN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -0.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | +6.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -5.2% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -2.4% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -1.1% |
| 8 May 2025 | +41.9% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -4.5% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | -2.9% |
Talen Energy at a glance
Talen Energy Corporation functions as an independent power producer and infrastructure enterprise, providing electricity, capacity, and essential ancillary services to wholesale energy markets across the United States.
- Market value
- $13.3B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +69.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.74
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Talen Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TLN was $275.96. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $256.97, a change of -6.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Talen Energy's valuation
Is Talen Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TLN's fair value at $256.97 a share against a last close of $299.97, as of 19 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is TLN's fair value?
$256.97 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $83.45 to $517.79.
What price range does the model give TLN?
$265.04 to $378.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Talen Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TLN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +41.9% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for TLN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.