NASDAQ: TLN · Independent Power Producers
Talen Energy (TLN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Talen Energy (TLN) at $332.12 a share. The stock last closed at $316.23, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Talen Energy Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $318.57 to $332.12 (+4.3%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $316.23 is 5.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 25 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 20% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give TLN?
The calibrated range for TLN over 63 trading days is $258.42 to $405.24. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TLN's own options imply (68% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $133.53 to $630.62. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is an independent power producer and infrastructure enterprise. It supplies electricity, capacity and essential ancillary services to wholesale energy markets across the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $332.12 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $318.57, so the fair value moved +4.3%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $295.16 to $451.78. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model's overall quality score is 52 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Earnings quality scores 100, and growth quality scores 92 on trailing revenue growth of 26.7% against a peer median of 8.8%. Balance sheet scores 0, with net debt to EBITDA at 12.96x against a peer median of 2.30x. The model compares the company with Vistra Corp. (VST), Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT), Evergy, Inc. (EVRG), Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW), Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) and NiSource Inc (NI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does TLN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Talen Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TLN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 TLN moved 8.5% in one session, against the 4.0% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across TLN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in TLN
How does TLN score on business quality?
Talen Energy's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | 2.3%ROIC | 8.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 92 | 26.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 12.96xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 25.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.0 pts |
How does TLN compare with similar companies?
The companies in independent power producers closest to Talen Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $80.55 | $94.75 | +17.6% | Low evidence grade |
| VST Vistra Corp. | $112.89 | $139.75 | +23.8% | Undervalued |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $239.65 | $241.09 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | $73.44 | $61.89 | -15.7% | Overvalued |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $87.41 | $85.01 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $103.83 | $111.18 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | $46.05 | $43.53 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| NI NiSource Inc | $44.44 | $42.20 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for TLN, the peer-implied price, is $271.59 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Talen Energy at a glance
Talen Energy Corporation functions as an independent power producer and infrastructure enterprise, providing electricity, capacity, and essential ancillary services to wholesale energy markets across the United States.
- Market value
- $16.2B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +70.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.87
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Talen Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for TLN was $318.57. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $332.12, a change of +4.3%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Talen Energy's valuation
Is Talen Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TLN's fair value at $332.12 a share against a last close of $316.23, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is TLN's fair value?
$332.12 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $133.53 to $630.62.
What price range does the model give TLN?
$258.42 to $405.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Talen Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TLN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.5% around the report of 4 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TLN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on TLN
The model holds no idea open on TLN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on TLN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.