NASDAQ: TTWO · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) at $214.77 a share. The stock last closed at $202.73, which puts the model's fair value 5.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. was established in 1993 and is headquartered in New York, New York. It is a global leader in the development, publishing, and marketing of interactive entertainment experiences for consumers worldwide.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $214.77 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $219.35, a move of -2.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $181.69 to $245.53, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 49 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Roper Technologies, Inc., NetApp, Inc., Twilio Inc., Everpure, Inc., Flex Ltd., Microchip Technology Incorporated, Jabil Inc., and Okta, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 9.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TTWO?
The calibrated range for TTWO over 63 trading days is $181.69 to $245.53. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TTWO's own options imply (42% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $160.31 to $279.29. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TTWO score on business quality?
Take-Two Interactive Software's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | -3.1%ROIC | -2.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 76 | 18.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 26.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 68 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 1.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 23.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does TTWO compare with similar companies?
The companies in electronic gaming & multimedia closest to Take-Two Interactive Software in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $354.32 | $355.03 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $226.27 | $179.43 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $294.58 | $321.84 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
| P Everpure, Inc. | $140.14 | $115.16 | -17.8% | Overvalued |
| FLEX Flex Ltd. | $116.61 | $113.69 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $81.32 | $101.10 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | $304.41 | $433.08 | +42.3% | Undervalued |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | $211.49 | $207.40 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
When does TTWO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Take-Two Interactive Software's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TTWO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
How TTWO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | +9.1% |
| 21 May 2026 | -3.8% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | -9.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -8.9% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -4.3% |
| 15 May 2025 | -1.2% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +12.9% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +9.2% |
Take-Two Interactive Software at a glance
Established in 1993 and headquartered in New York, New York, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is a global leader in the development, publishing, and marketing of interactive entertainment experiences for consumers worldwide.
- Market value
- $37.7B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +28.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.74
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Take-Two Interactive Software on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TTWO was $219.35. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $214.77, a change of -2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Take-Two Interactive Software's valuation
Is Take-Two Interactive Software stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TTWO reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $214.77 a share against a last close of $202.73, a gap of +5.9%.
What is TTWO's fair value?
$214.77 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $160.31 to $279.29.
What price range does the model give TTWO?
$181.69 to $245.53 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Take-Two Interactive Software report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TTWO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.9% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TTWO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.