UGI Corporation (UGI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $46.30 · Current price: $36.31 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on UGI

UGI CORP (UGI) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued based on our rigorous Monte Carlo simulations. With its shares trading at $36.31, our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $46.30. This suggests a potential +27.5% upside to its intrinsic value, positioning UGI as not overvalued in the current market environment. Our simulations, running thousands of forward scenarios, highlight this significant gap between the current trading price and the calculated median fair value.

How UGI stacks up against peers

Despite the "n/a" sector classification, UGI exhibits a strong quality tier, reflecting robust operational and financial health. This internal strength underpins the resilience seen in our fair value assessments, particularly when considering the potential +27.5% indicated by the median fair value of $46.30 relative to its trading price of $36.31. A strong quality tier often suggests a company with durable fundamentals, capable of navigating market fluctuations and supporting its intrinsic valuation over time.

What this means for investors

For investors, the Fairly Valued verdict combined with a strong quality tier for UGI at $36.31 offers a compelling perspective. The identified +27.5% to our median fair value of $46.30 suggests room for appreciation without the immediate risk of being overextended. While the current price of $36.31 sits below the P50, this scenario typically indicates a healthy investment profile for long-term holders. To gain a deeper understanding of UGI’s full fair value distribution, including specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) case targets, sign up for a free FairCurve account and track UGI's fair value as new fundamentals are released.