NYSE: SWX · Regulated Gas
Southwest Gas (SWX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Southwest Gas (SWX) at $75.36 a share. The stock last closed at $82.69, which puts the model's fair value 8.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. is primarily engaged in the delivery and transportation of natural gas to customers across Arizona, Nevada, and California.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $75.36 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This fair value is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and represents a +0.5% move since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $74.95. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $62.87 to $91.36, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 21 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with Black Hills Corporation, New Jersey Resources Corporation, Spire Inc., ONE Gas, Inc., UGI Corporation, MDU Resources Group, Inc., Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, and Northwest Natural Holding Company. The stock has moved by a median size of 3.1% around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SWX?
The calibrated range for SWX over 63 trading days is $62.87 to $91.36. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $51.37 to $104.65. In 41% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SWX score on business quality?
Southwest Gas's overall quality score is 21 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | 4.7%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 12 | -1.60xFCF / net income | -1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 25 | -62.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 28 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 82 | 3.69xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 10 | 6.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.1 pts |
How does SWX compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to Southwest Gas in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | $70.96 | $72.71 | +2.5% | Fairly valued |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $51.59 | $52.30 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| SR Spire Inc. | $77.54 | $59.53 | -23.2% | Overvalued |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $72.57 | $83.91 | +15.6% | Undervalued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $37.20 | $44.42 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $18.61 | $17.98 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $127.38 | $126.39 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $47.38 | $56.83 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
When does SWX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Southwest Gas's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SWX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +3.8% |
| 5 May 2026 | -2.4% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +0.5% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -4.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -1.1% |
| 12 May 2025 | +5.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -4.6% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -0.3% |
Southwest Gas at a glance
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., operating through its various subsidiaries, is primarily engaged in the delivery and transportation of natural gas to customers across Arizona, Nevada, and California.
- Market value
- $6.0B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Southwest Gas on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SWX was $74.95. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $75.36, a change of +0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Southwest Gas's valuation
Is Southwest Gas stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SWX reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $75.36 a share against a last close of $82.69, a gap of -8.9%.
What is SWX's fair value?
$75.36 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $51.37 to $104.65.
What price range does the model give SWX?
$62.87 to $91.36 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Southwest Gas report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SWX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.3% around the report of 12 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SWX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.