NYSE: SR · Regulated Gas
Spire (SR) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Spire (SR) at $59.60 a share. The stock last closed at $77.54, which puts the model's fair value 23.1% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- A core financial input changed implausibly against last week.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Spire Inc.
What price range does the model give SR?
The calibrated range for SR over 63 trading days is $50.00 to $72.67. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.56 to $90.33. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SR score on business quality?
Spire's overall quality score is 36 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 3.9%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 49 | -0.37xFCF / net income | -0.71x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | -4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 8 | 8.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.38x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 82 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does SR compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to Spire in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $72.57 | $83.50 | +15.1% | Undervalued |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $51.59 | $51.92 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $18.61 | $18.08 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | $70.96 | $70.97 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $82.69 | $74.95 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $127.38 | $126.92 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $37.20 | $43.13 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $47.38 | $57.21 | +20.7% | Undervalued |
When does SR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
Spire at a glance
Spire Inc. operates as a public utility holding company, which provides natural gas services through its regulated core utility operations while engaging in non-regulated activities.
- Market value
- $4.6B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Spire on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 15 Aug 2026 the model's fair value for SR was $115.00. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $59.60, a change of -48.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Spire's valuation
Is Spire stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SR's fair value at $59.60 a share against a last close of $77.54, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is SR's fair value?
$59.60 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.56 to $90.33.
What price range does the model give SR?
$50.00 to $72.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.