NYSE: MDU · Regulated Gas
MDU Resources Group (MDU) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MDU Resources Group (MDU) at $19.32 a share. The stock last closed at $19.65, which puts the model's fair value 1.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. MDU Resources Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $18.84 to $19.32 (+2.5%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $19.65 is 1.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MDU?
The calibrated range for MDU over 63 trading days is $15.65 to $23.08. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.49 to $24.62. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MDU Resources Group, Inc. operates across two primary sectors within the United States: regulated energy provision and a diverse range of construction materials and services.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $19.32 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $18.84, so the fair value moved +2.5%. The model says: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $15.65 to $23.08, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High. The grade covers input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for MDU is 37 out of 100, a composite of six factors. Stability and Profitability each score 29, the lowest of the six. Stability's five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility is 4.8 pts, against a peer median of 3.0 pts. Profitability's ROIC is 5.2%, against a peer median of 5.5%. Growth quality scores 52, with trailing revenue growth of 6.7% against a peer median of 12.9%. The model compares MDU with nine companies: ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), Spire Inc. (SR), Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK), New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR), Black Hills Corporation (BKH), Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX), Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) and UGI Corporation (UGI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MDU report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MDU Resources Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MDU's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
How does MDU score on business quality?
MDU Resources Group's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 29 | 5.2%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | -1.78xFCF / net income | -1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 52 | 6.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 32 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 41 | 4.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.38x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 4.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does MDU compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to MDU Resources Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $81.03 | $90.09 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| SR Spire Inc. | $88.01 | $69.07 | -21.5% | Overvalued |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $138.05 | $138.61 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $53.64 | $54.86 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | $82.20 | $83.40 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $93.13 | $83.74 | -10.1% | Fairly valued |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $50.20 | $56.78 | +13.1% | Fairly valued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $38.16 | $45.73 | +19.8% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MDU, the peer-implied price, is $17.87 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
MDU Resources Group at a glance
MDU Resources Group, Inc. operates across two primary sectors within the United States: regulated energy provision and a diverse range of construction materials and services.
- Market value
- $4.1B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MDU was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MDU Resources Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MDU was $18.84. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $19.32, a change of +2.5%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MDU Resources Group's valuation
Is MDU Resources Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MDU reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $19.32 a share against a last close of $19.65, a gap of -1.7%.
What is MDU's fair value?
$19.32 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.49 to $24.62.
What price range does the model give MDU?
$15.65 to $23.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does MDU Resources Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MDU moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.9% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MDU is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MDU
The model holds no idea open on MDU today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MDU with their outcomes. A free account is enough.