NYSE: BKH · Regulated Gas
Black Hills (BKH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Black Hills (BKH) at $72.71 a share. The stock last closed at $70.96, which puts the model's fair value 2.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Black Hills Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Black Hills Corporation operates as an American utility firm, delivering both electric power and natural gas through its subsidiaries. Its business is organized into two primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $72.71 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $72.36, so the fair value moved +0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $60.66 to $88.15; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,809 past valuations. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 60 out of 100, against comparable companies. These include New Jersey Resources Corporation, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., Spire Inc., ONE Gas, Inc., MDU Resources Group, Inc., UGI Corporation, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, and Northwest Natural Holding Company. The median move around the last eight earnings reports was 1.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BKH?
The calibrated range for BKH over 63 trading days is $60.66 to $88.15. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.56 to $94.79. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BKH score on business quality?
Black Hills's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 98 | 5.7%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | -1.02xFCF / net income | -0.70x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 8.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 46 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 39 | 5.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does BKH compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to Black Hills in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $51.59 | $52.30 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $82.69 | $75.36 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| SR Spire Inc. | $77.54 | $59.53 | -23.2% | Overvalued |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $72.57 | $83.91 | +15.6% | Undervalued |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $18.61 | $17.98 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $37.20 | $44.42 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $127.38 | $126.39 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $47.38 | $56.83 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
When does BKH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Black Hills's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How BKH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.7% |
| 6 May 2026 | +1.9% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +0.5% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +4.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +2.2% |
| 7 May 2025 | -3.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +1.2% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +1.3% |
Black Hills at a glance
Black Hills Corporation operates as an American utility firm, delivering both electric power and natural gas through its subsidiaries. Its business is organized into two primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.03
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Black Hills on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BKH was $72.36. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $72.71, a change of +0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Black Hills's valuation
Is Black Hills stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BKH reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $72.71 a share against a last close of $70.96, a gap of +2.5%.
What is BKH's fair value?
$72.71 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.56 to $94.79.
What price range does the model give BKH?
$60.66 to $88.15 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Black Hills report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BKH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.8% around the report of 5 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BKH is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.