NYSE: CSL · Construction Materials
Carlisle Companies (CSL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Carlisle Companies (CSL) at $372.69 a share. The stock last closed at $378.96, which puts the model's fair value 1.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Carlisle Companies Incorporated.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $350.16 to $372.69 (+6.4%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $378.96 is 1.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CSL?
The calibrated range for CSL over 63 trading days is $338.59 to $435.20. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CSL's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $292.69 to $465.75. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) operates as a manufacturer and supplier of building envelope products and solutions in the United States, Europe, North America, and internationally. It is classed under Basic Materials and Construction Materials.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $372.69 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $350.16, so the fair value moved +6.4%. In the model's words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $360.04 to $452.22. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is High, based on input completeness, comparable companies and the width of outcomes.
Carlisle scores 59 out of 100 overall on quality against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 83, with ROIC of 20.8% against a peer median of 13.2%. Capital discipline scores 75, with net buybacks at 7.7% of market value against a peer median of 2.6%. Earnings quality is the weakest at 21, with FCF / net income of 1.04x against a peer median of 1.33x. The model compares it with Masco Corporation (MAS), Owens Corning (OC) and Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM), among others.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CSL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carlisle Companies's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CSL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.9% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 CSL moved 5.0% in one session, against the 2.2% a day that options had priced: 2.3 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CSL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CSL
How does CSL score on business quality?
Carlisle Companies's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 20.8%ROIC | 13.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 21 | 1.04xFCF / net income | 1.33x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 45 | 0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 7.7%Net buybacks / market value | 2.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 66 | 1.95xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.99x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does CSL compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Carlisle Companies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAS Masco Corporation | $83.83 | $84.73 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $122.63 | $136.03 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $124.26 | $135.05 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $138.54 | $164.31 | +18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $198.84 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $170.54 | $173.66 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $527.83 | $458.43 | -13.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CSL, the peer-implied price, is $361.10 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Carlisle Companies at a glance
Carlisle Companies Incorporated operates as a manufacturer and supplier of building envelope products and solutions in the United States, Europe, North America, and internationally.
- Market value
- $14.9B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CSL was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carlisle Companies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CSL was $350.16. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $372.69, a change of +6.4%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carlisle Companies's valuation
Is Carlisle Companies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CSL reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $372.69 a share against a last close of $378.96, a gap of -1.7%.
What is CSL's fair value?
$372.69 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $292.69 to $465.75.
What price range does the model give CSL?
$338.59 to $435.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Carlisle Companies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CSL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.4% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CSL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CSL
The model holds no idea open on CSL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CSL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.