NYSE: ABG · Auto Dealerships
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) at $201.67 a share. The stock last closed at $175.88, which puts the model's fair value 14.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. operates as an automotive retailer in the United States, through its Dealerships and Total Care Auto, Powered by Asbury (TCA) segments.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $201.67 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -4.3% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $210.65. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $168.26 to $244.49, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. is 43 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with Valvoline Inc. and Rush Enterprises, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +9.5% on 28 Jul 2026 and -5.0% on 5 Feb 2026, with a median size of 3.2%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ABG?
The calibrated range for ABG over 63 trading days is $168.26 to $244.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $86.41 to $347.24. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ABG score on business quality?
Asbury Automotive Group's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 31 | 7.2%ROIC | 7.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 0.97xFCF / net income | 0.52x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | 4.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 11.5%Net buybacks / market value | 6.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 5.15xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.83x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 54 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does ABG compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Asbury Automotive Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $249.84 | $263.72 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $35.53 | $38.01 | +7.0% | Data under review |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $30.58 | $30.26 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $62.83 | $39.53 | -37.1% | Low evidence grade |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $162.46 | $144.19 | -11.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $47.18 | $45.72 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $307.77 | $208.30 | -32.3% | Low evidence grade |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $54.92 | $27.03 | -50.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does ABG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Asbury Automotive Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ABG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +9.5% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +0.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -5.0% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | +1.3% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -3.1% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +1.9% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +8.2% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +3.3% |
Asbury Automotive Group at a glance
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. It operates through Dealerships; and Total Care Auto, Powered by Asbury (TCA) segments.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $18.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.52
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Asbury Automotive Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ABG was $210.65. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $201.67, a change of -4.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Asbury Automotive Group's valuation
Is Asbury Automotive Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ABG's fair value at $201.67 a share against a last close of $175.88, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ABG's fair value?
$201.67 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $86.41 to $347.24.
What price range does the model give ABG?
$168.26 to $244.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Asbury Automotive Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ABG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.5% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ABG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.