NYSE: VVV ยท Auto Dealerships
Valvoline (VVV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Valvoline (VVV) at $29.28 a share. The stock last closed at $26.62, which puts the model's fair value 10.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Valvoline Inc.
What price range does the model give VVV?
The calibrated range for VVV over 63 trading days is $24.70 to $35.88. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $19.67 to $40.68. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VVV score on business quality?
Valvoline's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 9.9%ROIC | 6.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.33xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 79 | 5.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 6 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 87 | 3.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.57x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 11 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does VVV compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Valvoline in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $184.55 | $206.30 | +11.8% | Low model confidence |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $34.77 | $36.91 | +6.2% | Data under review |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $250.87 | $264.40 | +5.4% | Low model confidence |
| SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $65.92 | $39.50 | -40.1% | Low model confidence |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $168.76 | $147.68 | -12.5% | Low model confidence |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $48.09 | $46.40 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $316.15 | $211.77 | -33.0% | Low model confidence |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $57.86 | $19.09 | -67.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does VVV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Valvoline's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How VVV moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -9.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | +4.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +10.4% |
| 19 Nov 2025 | -3.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +6.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | +9.4% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +5.0% |
| 19 Nov 2024 | -9.1% |
Valvoline at a glance
Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider, involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and commercialization of a comprehensive range of engine and vehicle care products and related services.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +21.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Valvoline on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VVV was $31.98. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $29.28, a change of -8.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Valvoline's valuation
Is Valvoline stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VVV reads as Fairly valued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $29.28 a share against a last close of $26.62, a gap of +10.0%.
What is VVV's fair value?
$29.28 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $19.67 to $40.68.
What price range does the model give VVV?
$24.70 to $35.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Valvoline report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VVV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.4% around the report of 4 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for VVV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.