NYSE: VVV · Auto Dealerships
Valvoline (VVV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Valvoline (VVV) at $33.20 a share. The stock last closed at $35.83, which puts the model's fair value 7.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Valvoline Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $31.67 to $33.20 (+4.8%). The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $35.83 is 7.3% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 18 Nov 2026. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 9 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give VVV?
The calibrated range for VVV over 63 trading days is $26.89 to $39.66. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.68 to $45.71. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider involved in the manufacturing, distribution and commercialisation of engine and vehicle care products and related services.
The model's fair value is $33.20 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on the run of 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $31.67, so the fair value moved +4.8%. The model's own words give the reason: the model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $26.89 to $39.66, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 73 out of 100 on the model's quality measure, a composite of six factors. Profitability stands out at 100, with ROIC of 9.9% against a peer median of 6.8%. Balance sheet scores 86, with net debt to EBITDA of 4.11x against a peer median of 6.59x. Capital discipline scores 6, with net buybacks to market value of 0.0% against a peer median of 3.6%. The model compares it with Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA), which has its own fair value on the site, and with seven companies that have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does VVV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Valvoline's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across VVV's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
How does VVV score on business quality?
Valvoline's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 9.9%ROIC | 6.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.33xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 78 | 5.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 6 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | 4.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.59x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 3.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does VVV compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Valvoline in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $35.65 | $38.18 | +7.1% | Data under review |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $207.03 | $215.26 | +4.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $45.32 | $42.35 | -6.6% | Fairly valued |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $266.50 | $281.38 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $188.12 | $276.95 | +47.2% | Data under review |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $316.52 | $249.55 | -21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $52.60 | $28.75 | -45.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $62.80 | $32.46 | -48.3% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for VVV, the peer-implied price, is $35.18 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Valvoline at a glance
Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider, involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and commercialization of a comprehensive range of engine and vehicle care products and related services.
- Market value
- $4.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +21.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. VVV was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Valvoline on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for VVV was $31.67. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $33.20, a change of +4.8%. The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Valvoline's valuation
Is Valvoline stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VVV reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $33.20 a share against a last close of $35.83, a gap of -7.3%.
What is VVV's fair value?
$33.20 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.68 to $45.71.
What price range does the model give VVV?
$26.89 to $39.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Valvoline report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VVV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.4% around the report of 4 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VVV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on VVV
The model has an idea open on VVV under Earnings Momentum since 9 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on VVV with their outcomes. A free account is enough.