NYSE: LAD · Auto Dealerships
Lithia Motors (LAD) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Lithia Motors (LAD) at $249.55 a share. The stock last closed at $298.77, which puts the model's fair value 16.5% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Lithia Motors, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $240.89 to $249.55 (+3.6%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $298.77 is 16.5% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LAD?
The calibrated range for LAD over 63 trading days is $264.11 to $347.64. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LAD's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $49.15 to $480.17. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Lithia Motors, Inc. is a prominent automotive retail business across the United States, split into Domestic, Import and Luxury vehicle sales.
The model's fair value for Lithia Motors is $249.55 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $240.89, so the fair value moved +3.6%. The model's reason, in its own words: it shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $259.29 to $355.60. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and how wide the outcomes are. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On quality, the business scores 31 out of 100 against comparable companies, the model's overall quality score. Capital discipline and stability each score 86. Net buybacks are 14.0% of market value against a peer median of 4.1%, and EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years is 0.5 pts against a peer median of 0.8 pts. The balance sheet scores 3, with net debt to EBITDA at 11.26x against a peer median of 6.51x. The model compares the company with Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA), Valvoline Inc. (VVV) and Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LAD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lithia Motors's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LAD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LAD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LAD
How does LAD score on business quality?
Lithia Motors's overall quality score is 31 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 2.9%ROIC | 7.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 6 | -0.54xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 43 | 4.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 14.0%Net buybacks / market value | 4.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 3 | 11.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.51x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does LAD compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Lithia Motors in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $178.51 | $276.95 | +55.1% | Data under review |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $53.38 | $28.75 | -46.1% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $44.27 | $42.35 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $38.88 | $38.18 | -1.8% | Data under review |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $33.74 | $33.20 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $197.77 | $215.26 | +8.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | $212.21 | $159.68 | -24.8% | Overvalued |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $265.01 | $281.38 | +6.2% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LAD, the peer-implied price, is $114.92 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Lithia Motors at a glance
Lithia Motors, Inc. operates as a prominent automotive retail enterprise throughout the United States. Its business is strategically divided into three key segments: Domestic, Import, and Luxury vehicle sales.
- Market value
- $6.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $39.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lithia Motors on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LAD was $240.89. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $249.55, a change of +3.6%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lithia Motors's valuation
Is Lithia Motors stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LAD's fair value at $249.55 a share against a last close of $298.77, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is LAD's fair value?
$249.55 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $49.15 to $480.17.
What price range does the model give LAD?
$264.11 to $347.64 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Lithia Motors report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LAD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.0% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LAD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LAD
The model holds no idea open on LAD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LAD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.