NYSE: SAH · Auto Dealerships
Sonic Automotive (SAH) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sonic Automotive (SAH) at $39.53 a share. The stock last closed at $62.83, which puts the model's fair value 37.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sonic Automotive, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Sonic Automotive, Inc. operates as a significant automotive retailer across the United States, structuring its diverse business activities into two primary divisions: Franchised Dealerships and EchoPark.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $39.53 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.8% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $40.25. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.16 to $48.20, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for Sonic Automotive, Inc. is 32 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Valvoline Inc. (VVV) and Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include -18.7% on 30 Jul 2026 and +29.0% on 24 Apr 2025. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, is 7.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SAH?
The calibrated range for SAH over 63 trading days is $33.16 to $48.20. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $3.61 to $80.86. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SAH score on business quality?
Sonic Automotive's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 6.2%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 15 | -0.26xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 63 | 6.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 8.6%Net buybacks / market value | 7.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 17 | 6.99xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.71x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does SAH compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Sonic Automotive in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $249.84 | $255.34 | +2.2% | Low evidence grade |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $175.88 | $210.65 | +19.8% | Low evidence grade |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $30.58 | $29.27 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $35.53 | $37.50 | +5.5% | Data under review |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $162.46 | $144.19 | -11.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $47.18 | $45.69 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $307.77 | $189.11 | -38.6% | Low evidence grade |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $54.92 | $27.73 | -49.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does SAH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sonic Automotive's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SAH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -18.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +4.3% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +10.7% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -17.4% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -1.4% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +29.0% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -1.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +2.5% |
Sonic Automotive at a glance
Sonic Automotive, Inc. operates as a significant automotive retailer across the United States, structuring its diverse business activities into two primary divisions: Franchised Dealerships and EchoPark.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $16.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sonic Automotive on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SAH was $40.25. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $39.53, a change of -1.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sonic Automotive's valuation
Is Sonic Automotive stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SAH's fair value at $39.53 a share against a last close of $62.83, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SAH's fair value?
$39.53 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $3.61 to $80.86.
What price range does the model give SAH?
$33.16 to $48.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Sonic Automotive report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SAH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +29.0% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SAH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.