NYSE: AN ยท Auto Dealerships
AutoNation (AN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values AutoNation (AN) at $276.95 a share. The stock last closed at $178.51, which puts the model's fair value 55.1% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. AutoNation, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $141.01 to $276.95 (+96.4%). Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $178.51 is 55.1% below it. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What's nextNext report on 5 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AN?
The calibrated range for AN over 63 trading days is $155.84 to $210.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AN's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $199.75 to $365.78. In 87% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does AN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AutoNation's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AN
How does AN score on business quality?
AutoNation's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 15.8%ROIC | 7.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 6 | 0.03xFCF / net income | 1.10x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 48 | 3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 6.1%Net buybacks / market value | 3.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 2.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.65x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does AN compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to AutoNation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $298.77 | $249.55 | -16.5% | Low evidence grade |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $44.27 | $42.35 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $38.88 | $38.18 | -1.8% | Data under review |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $53.38 | $28.75 | -46.1% | Low evidence grade |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $33.74 | $33.20 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $197.77 | $215.26 | +8.8% | Low evidence grade |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $265.01 | $281.38 | +6.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | $212.21 | $159.68 | -24.8% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AN, the peer-implied price, is $426.74 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
AutoNation at a glance
AutoNation, Inc. functions as an automotive retailer throughout the United States, organizing its operations across three primary segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.
- Market value
- $5.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $28.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AutoNation on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AN was $141.01. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $276.95, a change of +96.4%. Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AutoNation's valuation
Is AutoNation stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AN's fair value at $276.95 a share against a last close of $178.51, as of 31 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is AN's fair value?
$276.95 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $199.75 to $365.78.
What price range does the model give AN?
$155.84 to $210.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does AutoNation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.8% around the report of 30 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.