NYSE: ABR · Mortgage REITs
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) at $5.15 a share. The stock last closed at $3.56, which puts the model's fair value 44.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Arbor Realty Trust.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $5.15 a share on 26 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $5.31, meaning the fair value moved -3.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $2.99 to $4.82, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares it with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI), Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), and Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 11.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ABR?
The calibrated range for ABR over 63 trading days is $2.99 to $4.82. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ABR's own options imply (67% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.00 to $6.51. In 79% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ABR compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Arbor Realty Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.20 | $4.21 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $7.81 | $9.75 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.99 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | $3.53 | $4.75 | +34.6% | Low evidence grade |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.59 | $13.03 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $13.59 | $22.19 | +63.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $10.90 | $7.62 | -30.1% | Overvalued |
When does ABR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arbor Realty Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 1 Oct 2026, ABR's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 19.4% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
How ABR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +7.7% |
| 8 May 2026 | -18.5% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | +18.3% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | -15.1% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | +2.1% |
| 2 May 2025 | -4.8% |
| 21 Feb 2025 | -15.6% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | -0.3% |
Arbor Realty Trust at a glance
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business.
- Market value
- $775M
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -61.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arbor Realty Trust on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ABR was $5.31. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $5.15, a change of -3.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arbor Realty Trust's valuation
Is Arbor Realty Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ABR's fair value at $5.15 a share against a last close of $3.56, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ABR's fair value?
$5.15 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.00 to $6.51.
What price range does the model give ABR?
$2.99 to $4.82 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Arbor Realty Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ABR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -18.5% around the report of 8 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ABR is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.