NASDAQ: ADAM · Mortgage REITs
Adamas Trust (ADAM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Adamas Trust (ADAM) at $9.75 a share. The stock last closed at $7.81, which puts the model's fair value 24.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Adamas Trust, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Adamas Trust, Inc. is a U.S.-based entity primarily focused on the acquisition, investment, financing, and management of assets connected to single-family and multi-family residential mortgages.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $9.75 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $9.90, meaning the fair value moved -1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $8.18 to $11.89, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business quality scores against comparable companies PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI), Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), and Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +2.6% on 29 Jul 2026 and +10.5% on 29 Apr 2026. The median size, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ADAM?
The calibrated range for ADAM over 63 trading days is $8.18 to $11.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.57 to $12.33. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ADAM compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Adamas Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.99 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $3.56 | $5.15 | +44.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.20 | $4.21 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | $3.53 | $4.75 | +34.6% | Low evidence grade |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.59 | $13.03 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $13.59 | $22.19 | +63.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $10.90 | $7.62 | -30.1% | Overvalued |
When does ADAM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Adamas Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ADAM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +2.6% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +10.5% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +2.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -3.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -7.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +15.4% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +6.1% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +6.1% |
Adamas Trust at a glance
Adamas Trust, Inc. is a U.S.-based entity primarily focused on the acquisition, investment, financing, and management of assets connected to single-family and multi-family residential mortgages.
- Market value
- $731M
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -64.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.73
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Adamas Trust on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ADAM was $9.90. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $9.75, a change of -1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Adamas Trust's valuation
Is Adamas Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ADAM reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $9.75 a share against a last close of $7.81, a gap of +24.8%.
What is ADAM's fair value?
$9.75 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.57 to $12.33.
What price range does the model give ADAM?
$8.18 to $11.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Adamas Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ADAM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.4% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADAM is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.