NYSE: BXMT · Mortgage REITs
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) at $7.44 a share. The stock last closed at $10.90, which puts the model's fair value 31.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. functions as a real estate finance entity, primarily engaged in originating senior-level debt secured by commercial properties. These investment activities span across North America, Europe, and Australia.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $7.44 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $7.62, so the fair value moved -2.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $6.21 to $9.02, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The business is compared with Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI), Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), and Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BXMT?
The calibrated range for BXMT over 63 trading days is $6.21 to $9.02. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $6.14 to $8.89. In 4% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BXMT compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Blackstone Mortgage Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $13.59 | $22.12 | +62.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.59 | $12.36 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.20 | $3.90 | -37.1% | Overvalued |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $7.81 | $9.76 | +25.0% | Undervalued |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $13.05 | $8.42 | -35.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $3.56 | $7.63 | +114.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.27 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
When does BXMT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How BXMT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -11.3% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -5.1% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +0.7% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.0% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -4.6% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +7.8% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +5.0% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +1.7% |
Blackstone Mortgage Trust at a glance
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) functions as a real estate finance entity, primarily engaged in originating senior-level debt secured by commercial properties. These investment activities span across North America, Europe, and Australia. For U.S.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -59.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BXMT was $7.62. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $7.44, a change of -2.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Blackstone Mortgage Trust's valuation
Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BXMT reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $7.44 a share against a last close of $10.90, a gap of -31.7%.
What is BXMT's fair value?
$7.44 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $6.14 to $8.89.
What price range does the model give BXMT?
$6.21 to $9.02 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Blackstone Mortgage Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BXMT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.3% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BXMT is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.