NYSE: STWD · Mortgage REITs
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Starwood Property Trust (STWD) at $8.46 a share. The stock last closed at $12.53, which puts the model's fair value 32.5% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Starwood Property Trust, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $8.46, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $12.53 is 32.5% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 9 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give STWD?
The calibrated range for STWD over 63 trading days is $6.85 to $10.11. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $6.57 to $10.70. In 10% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates in the United States and internationally. It runs four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $8.46 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $8.48, so the fair value moved -0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $6.85 to $10.11. There is no live options data for the stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the realised price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at the number and agreement of comparable companies, the spread of outcomes and whether the valuation methods agree. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet for this note does not include the model's quality scores, so no overall score or peer median is given here. The model compares Starwood with five companies that each have a fair value of their own on the site: ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), and Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT). Four more comparable companies have no verdict on this date: Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT), Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY), Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does STWD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Starwood Property Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across STWD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in STWD
How does STWD compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Starwood Property Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $11.08 | $8.90 | -19.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $12.13 | $17.63 | +45.3% | Undervalued |
| NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | $18.23 | $20.93 | +14.8% | Low evidence grade |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.34 | $15.78 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.89 | $7.61 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $5.73 | $3.69 | -35.6% | Low evidence grade |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.19 | $6.05 | -2.3% | Fairly valued |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $1.75 | $4.79 | +173.7% | Data under review |
Starwood Property Trust at a glance
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing.
- Market value
- $4.5B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Starwood Property Trust on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for STWD was $8.48. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $8.46, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Starwood Property Trust's valuation
Is Starwood Property Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts STWD's fair value at $8.46 a share against a last close of $12.53, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is STWD's fair value?
$8.46 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $6.57 to $10.70.
What price range does the model give STWD?
$6.85 to $10.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Starwood Property Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STWD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -4.5% around the report of 8 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STWD is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on STWD
The model holds no idea open on STWD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on STWD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.