NYSE: EFC · Mortgage REITs
Ellington Financial (EFC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ellington Financial (EFC) at $13.03 a share. The stock last closed at $11.59, which puts the model's fair value 12.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ellington Financial Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, is an investment company focused on acquiring and managing financial assets within the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $13.03 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -3.8% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $13.54. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.93 to $15.89, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The model compares Ellington Financial Inc. with Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc., Adamas Trust, Inc., PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, and Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 3.4%, ignoring direction. For example, it moved +2.7% on 6 Aug 2026 and +4.3% on 5 May 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EFC?
The calibrated range for EFC over 63 trading days is $10.93 to $15.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $10.11 to $16.47. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EFC compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Ellington Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $13.59 | $22.19 | +63.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $10.90 | $7.62 | -30.1% | Overvalued |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $6.20 | $4.21 | -32.1% | Overvalued |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $3.56 | $5.15 | +44.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $7.81 | $9.75 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.99 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | $3.53 | $4.75 | +34.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does EFC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ellington Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How EFC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +2.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | +4.3% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +1.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +2.0% |
| 7 May 2025 | +7.4% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +7.7% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +4.0% |
Ellington Financial at a glance
Ellington Financial Inc., operating through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, is an investment company primarily focused on acquiring and actively managing a broad range of financial assets within the United States.
- Market value
- $1.5B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -23.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ellington Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EFC was $13.54. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $13.03, a change of -3.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ellington Financial's valuation
Is Ellington Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EFC reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $13.03 a share against a last close of $11.59, a gap of +12.4%.
What is EFC's fair value?
$13.03 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $10.11 to $16.47.
What price range does the model give EFC?
$10.93 to $15.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Ellington Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EFC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.7% around the report of 27 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EFC is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.