NYSE: ACA · Construction Materials
Arcosa (ACA) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Arcosa (ACA) at $146.91 a share. The stock last closed at $146.50, which puts the model's fair value 0.3% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Arcosa, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA), founded in 2018 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a leading North American supplier of essential infrastructure products and solutions.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $146.91 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $147.00, so the fair value moved -0.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $123.25 to $179.13, built from the fair value, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,327 past valuations. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) with Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD), Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI), Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP), Owens Corning (OC), Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS), and Trex Company, Inc. (TREX). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports were: 5 Aug 2026 -0.2%, 30 Apr 2026 +7.1%, 26 Feb 2026 -15.1%, 30 Oct 2025 +9.5%, 7 Aug 2025 +13.2%, 6 May 2025 +11.3%, 27 Feb 2025 -10.2%, and 30 Oct 2024 -0.7%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 9.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ACA?
The calibrated range for ACA over 63 trading days is $123.25 to $179.13. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $100.31 to $208.67. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ACA compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Arcosa in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $173.56 | $177.52 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $163.12 | $169.45 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $56.25 | $57.64 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $173.09 | $173.62 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $171.36 | $180.68 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $118.36 | $132.22 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $127.27 | $125.98 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $43.56 | $43.15 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ACA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arcosa's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ACA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -0.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +7.1% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -15.1% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +9.5% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +13.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | +11.3% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -10.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -0.7% |
Arcosa at a glance
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA), founded in 2018 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a leading North American supplier of essential infrastructure products and solutions.
- Market value
- $7.2B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -9.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.98
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arcosa on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ACA was $147.00. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $146.91, a change of -0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arcosa's valuation
Is Arcosa stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ACA's fair value at $146.91 a share against a last close of $146.50, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ACA's fair value?
$146.91 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $100.31 to $208.67.
What price range does the model give ACA?
$123.25 to $179.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Arcosa report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ACA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.1% around the report of 26 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ACA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.