NYSE: KNSL · Property & Casualty Insurance
Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) at $314.34 a share. The stock last closed at $383.55, which puts the model's fair value 18.0% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $294.68 to $314.34 (+6.7%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $383.55 is 18.0% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 27 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give KNSL?
The calibrated range for KNSL over 63 trading days is $342.44 to $440.87. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that KNSL's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $243.63 to $404.49. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $314.34 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $294.68, so the model's fair value moved +6.7%. The model does not yet explain this move on its valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $342.44 to $440.87. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at comparable companies, the spread of outcomes and agreement between methods. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality score for the business and no peer median, so this note cannot compare its quality with peers. The model compares Kinsale with Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI), Mercury General Corporation (MCY), American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) and Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), each with a fair value of its own on the site. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG), RLI Corp. (RLI), Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) and Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does KNSL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Kinsale Capital Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. KNSL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across KNSL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in KNSL
How does KNSL compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Kinsale Capital Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $247.31 | $262.74 | +6.2% | Low evidence grade |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $66.84 | $47.48 | -29.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $100.57 | $106.58 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $102.71 | $161.74 | +57.5% | Undervalued |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $269.67 | $183.17 | -32.1% | Low evidence grade |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $153.00 | $179.12 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $296.13 | $223.66 | -24.5% | Low evidence grade |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $142.21 | $78.60 | -44.7% | Overvalued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Kinsale Capital Group at a glance
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance products in the United States.
- Market value
- $8.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -13.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- -0.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Kinsale Capital Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for KNSL was $294.68. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $314.34, a change of +6.7%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Kinsale Capital Group's valuation
Is Kinsale Capital Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts KNSL's fair value at $314.34 a share against a last close of $383.55, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is KNSL's fair value?
$314.34 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $243.63 to $404.49.
What price range does the model give KNSL?
$342.44 to $440.87 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Kinsale Capital Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KNSL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.4% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KNSL is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on KNSL
The model has an idea open on KNSL under Earnings Momentum since 27 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on KNSL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.