NYSE: RLI ยท Property & Casualty Insurance
RLI (RLI) fair value and price range
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values RLI (RLI) at $46.46 a share. The stock last closed at $59.07, which puts the model's fair value 21.3% below the price. No verdict is shown for RLI. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts (REITs) are valued with a separate method, and the model's evidence grade has not been worked out for that method yet. The fair value is shown for reference.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. RLI Corp.
What price range does the model give RLI?
The calibrated range for RLI over 63 trading days is $39.20 to $56.94. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was +0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.22 to $59.24. In 20% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RLI compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to RLI in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $100.34 | $162.28 | +61.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $87.78 | $83.59 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $223.21 | $205.66 | -7.9% | Not graded yet |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $358.19 | $290.39 | -18.9% | Not graded yet |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $134.09 | $94.11 | -29.8% | Not graded yet |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $39.22 | $44.29 | +12.9% | Not graded yet |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $235.95 | $159.98 | -32.2% | Not graded yet |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $141.24 | $153.01 | +8.3% | Not graded yet |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does RLI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
RLI's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How RLI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +1.6% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | -5.9% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | -4.0% |
| 20 Oct 2025 | +2.8% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | -0.8% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | -3.3% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -8.0% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | -2.4% |
RLI at a glance
RLI Corp. is an insurance holding company that underwrites a comprehensive portfolio of property and casualty (P&C) insurance products, operating across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $5.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices RLI on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RLI was $63.82. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $46.46, a change of -27.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about RLI's valuation
Is RLI stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts RLI's fair value at $46.46 a share against a last close of $59.07, as of 19 Sep 2026. No verdict is shown for RLI. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts (REITs) are valued with a separate method, and the model's evidence grade has not been worked out for that method yet. The fair value is shown for reference.
What is RLI's fair value?
$46.46 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.22 to $59.24.
What price range does the model give RLI?
$39.20 to $56.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does RLI report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RLI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.0% around the report of 22 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for RLI has not been graded yet. Banks, insurers and real estate investment trusts are valued with a separate method, and the evidence grade has not been worked out for it. No grade is a probability that a fair value is right.