NYSE: AGO · Specialty Insurance
Assured Guaranty (AGO) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Assured Guaranty (AGO) at $66.24 a share. The stock last closed at $71.29, which puts the model's fair value 7.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Assured Guaranty Ltd.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $65.12 to $66.24 (+1.7%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $71.29 is 7.1% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 9% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AGO?
The calibrated range for AGO over 63 trading days is $64.31 to $80.91. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AGO's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $61.11 to $71.36. In 25% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $66.24 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $65.12, so the model's fair value moved +1.7%. In the model's own words, "The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $64.31 to $80.91. It is built around the price from the volatility implied by the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at the number and agreement of comparable companies, the width of the range of outcomes, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality score for the business, so none is reported here. The model compares the company with First American Financial Corporation (FAF) and Employers Holdings, Inc. (EIG), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site. Six further comparable companies have no verdict on this date: NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH), Radian Group Inc. (RDN), MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG), Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT), Enact Holdings Inc. (ACT), and Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF). Faircurve first valued the company on 11 Jul 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AGO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Assured Guaranty's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AGO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AGO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
How does AGO compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to Assured Guaranty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | $43.31 | $55.61 | +28.4% | Low evidence grade |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | $35.84 | $47.84 | +33.5% | Low evidence grade |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | $28.64 | $35.38 | +23.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $67.71 | $82.42 | +21.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $47.50 | $50.47 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | $64.97 | $62.41 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $41.39 | $54.85 | +32.5% | Low evidence grade |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $47.35 | $22.85 | -51.7% | Overvalued |
Assured Guaranty at a glance
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.
- Market value
- $3.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Assured Guaranty on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AGO was $65.12. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $66.24, a change of +1.7%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Assured Guaranty's valuation
Is Assured Guaranty stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AGO's fair value at $66.24 a share against a last close of $71.29, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AGO's fair value?
$66.24 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $61.11 to $71.36.
What price range does the model give AGO?
$64.31 to $80.91 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Assured Guaranty report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AGO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.8% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AGO is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AGO
The model holds no idea open on AGO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AGO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.