Radian Group Inc. (RDN) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $74.78 · Current price: $35.05 · Verdict: Undervalued
The Verdict on RDN
No, RADIAN GROUP INC (RDN) is not overvalued based on our Monte Carlo simulations; in fact, it is designated as Deeply Undervalued. Our advanced quantitative analysis, which models thousands of forward scenarios, indicates a median fair value (P50) of $74.78. This figure stands in stark contrast to RDN's current trading price of $35.05, suggesting a substantial upside. The model identifies a significant +113.4% potential, highlighting a considerable discrepancy between the market's current valuation of RDN and its probabilistically derived intrinsic value. This robust outcome leads to our Deeply Undervalued verdict for the company.
How RDN stacks up against peers
While the quantitative signals for RDN are compelling, it is important to contextualize this valuation within the broader market. Our quality tier assessment currently classifies RDN as unrated regarding its operational and financial health compared to its sector peers. Despite this lack of a specific comparative health rating, the Monte Carlo simulation's output remains unambiguous: the gap between RDN's $35.05 and the P50 fair value of $74.78 is pronounced. This indicates that even without a definitive peer-based quality comparison, the fundamental valuation framework points strongly towards a Deeply Undervalued stock with considerable +113.4%.
What this means for investors
For investors examining RDN, the verdict of Deeply Undervalued, underpinned by our Monte Carlo simulations, presents a clear opportunity. The substantial +113.4% from the current trading level of $35.05 to the P50 fair value of $74.78 suggests that the market may be overlooking significant intrinsic value. This analytical approach provides a probabilistic framework for understanding RDN's potential. While market sentiment can influence short-term movements, the long-term outlook, based on our rigorous quantitative modeling, strongly supports the upside potential. For a comprehensive understanding of RDN's full bear-case and bull-case distribution, and to actively track its fair value as new market data and fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDN overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, RDN is Deeply Undervalued. Its median fair value (P50) is $74.78, significantly above its current price of $35.05.
What is the bear case and bull case for RDN?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, which includes specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices, along with the probability of achieving upside, is exclusively available to FairCurve account holders. Sign up for free to access these detailed scenarios.
How does FairCurve calculate RDN's fair value?
FairCurve calculates RDN's fair value using sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations that model thousands of distinct forward scenarios. This rigorous statistical approach helps determine a probabilistic range of potential intrinsic values.
How can I track RDN's fair value as it changes?
You can easily track RDN's fair value by adding it to your free FairCurve watchlist. This provides daily fair-value updates and instantly re-values the stock when new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.