NYSE: RDN · Specialty Insurance
Radian Group (RDN) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Radian Group (RDN) at $45.11 a share. The stock last closed at $32.57, which puts the model's fair value 38.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Radian Group Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Radian Group Inc. and its various subsidiaries operate across the United States as key players in the mortgage and real estate services sector.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $45.11 a share for Radian Group Inc. on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $46.84, so the fair value moved -3.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $37.64 to $54.69, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, with 4,809 past valuations refreshed on 3 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. The model compares Radian Group Inc. with First American Financial Corporation (FAF) and Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include -8.5% on 5 Aug 2026 and +12.3% on 30 Apr 2025, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give RDN?
The calibrated range for RDN over 63 trading days is $37.64 to $54.69. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.87 to $53.04. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RDN compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to Radian Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | $26.95 | $33.17 | +23.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $60.22 | $76.68 | +27.3% | Low evidence grade |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | $68.47 | $63.01 | -8.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $45.26 | $45.70 | +1.0% | Low evidence grade |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | $38.83 | $51.34 | +32.2% | Low evidence grade |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | $62.49 | $59.86 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $39.26 | $53.49 | +36.2% | Undervalued |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $49.13 | $21.40 | -56.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does RDN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Radian Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 2 Oct 2026 RDN moved 4.3% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
How RDN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -8.5% |
| 6 May 2026 | +5.7% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +0.1% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -0.3% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -3.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +12.3% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -1.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +4.6% |
Radian Group at a glance
Operating across the United States, Radian Group Inc. and its various subsidiaries are key players in the mortgage and real estate services sector.
- Market value
- $4.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +77.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- -0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Radian Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RDN was $46.84. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $45.11, a change of -3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Radian Group's valuation
Is Radian Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts RDN's fair value at $45.11 a share against a last close of $32.57, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is RDN's fair value?
$45.11 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.87 to $53.04.
What price range does the model give RDN?
$37.64 to $54.69 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Radian Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RDN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.3% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RDN is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.