Radian Group Inc. (RDN) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $75.41 · Current price: $38.12 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on RDN

RADIAN GROUP INC (RDN) currently trades at $38.12, but our advanced Monte Carlo simulations paint a distinctly different picture of its intrinsic worth. Our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $75.41 for RDN, suggesting the company is Deeply Undervalued in the market today. This substantial valuation gap implies an impressive +97.8% upside from its current trading price. The sophisticated Monte Carlo methodology rigorously explores thousands of forward-looking financial scenarios, consistently highlighting this significant disconnect between market perception and fundamental value for RDN.

How RDN stacks up against peers

While RADIAN GROUP INC (RDN) currently holds an unrated quality tier, indicating that its operational and financial health versus its sector is not yet fully assessed by our system, the underlying valuation remains exceptionally compelling. The stark contrast between RDN's $38.12 current price and its P50 median fair value of $75.41 underscores a substantial investment proposition. Despite the absence of a definitive quality rating against peers, the implied +97.8% upside suggested by our fair value analysis demands attention, pointing to a potential market mispricing that transcends immediate comparative health metrics.

What this means for investors

For investors scrutinizing RADIAN GROUP INC (RDN), the data signals a significant potential opportunity. With RDN trading significantly below its calculated intrinsic value at $38.12, and our median fair value (P50) standing robustly at $75.41, the implied +97.8% upside suggests substantial room for appreciation. This probabilistic view, derived from thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, consistently identifies RDN as Deeply Undervalued in the current environment. To fully understand the complete risk-reward profile, including both bear and bull case scenarios, sign up for a free FairCurve account to see the full bear/bull distribution and track RDN's fair value as new fundamentals are released.