NASDAQ: NMIH · Specialty Insurance
NMI Holdings (NMIH) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values NMI Holdings (NMIH) at $51.34 a share. The stock last closed at $38.83, which puts the model's fair value 32.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. NMI Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance. It operates in Financial Services and Specialty Insurance.
Faircurve's model valued NMI Holdings, Inc. at $51.34 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -4.1% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $53.51. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $42.83 to $62.24, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model compares NMI Holdings, Inc. with First American Financial Corporation (FAF) and Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF). The stock moved -0.1% after the 30 Jul 2026 earnings report, -9.5% after the 30 Apr 2026 report, +2.5% after the 10 Feb 2026 report, and +0.1% after the 4 Nov 2025 report. It moved -1.2% after the 29 Jul 2025 report, +20.9% after the 29 Apr 2025 report, -5.4% after the 6 Feb 2025 report, and -0.8% after the 6 Nov 2024 report. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NMIH?
The calibrated range for NMIH over 63 trading days is $42.83 to $62.24. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.39 to $58.75. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NMIH compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to NMI Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | $68.47 | $63.01 | -8.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | $32.57 | $45.11 | +38.5% | Low evidence grade |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | $26.95 | $33.17 | +23.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $60.22 | $76.68 | +27.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $45.26 | $45.70 | +1.0% | Low evidence grade |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | $62.49 | $59.86 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $49.13 | $21.40 | -56.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $39.26 | $53.49 | +36.2% | Undervalued |
When does NMIH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
NMI Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NMIH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -0.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -9.5% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +2.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +0.1% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -1.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +20.9% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -5.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -0.8% |
NMI Holdings at a glance
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -10.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.05
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices NMI Holdings on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NMIH was $53.51. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $51.34, a change of -4.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about NMI Holdings's valuation
Is NMI Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts NMIH's fair value at $51.34 a share against a last close of $38.83, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is NMIH's fair value?
$51.34 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.39 to $58.75.
What price range does the model give NMIH?
$42.83 to $62.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does NMI Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NMIH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.9% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NMIH is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.