NYSE: MTG · Specialty Insurance
MGIC Investment (MTG) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MGIC Investment (MTG) at $35.38 a share. The stock last closed at $28.64, which puts the model's fair value 23.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. MGIC Investment Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the price chart and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $35.38, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $28.64 is 23.5% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MTG?
The calibrated range for MTG over 63 trading days is $28.66 to $42.26. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 52% of the time over 63 trading days, and 45% ended below it; the typical move was +0.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $29.71 to $41.59. In 87% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its various subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance alongside a range of other mortgage credit risk management solutions and ancillary services.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $35.38 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $35.31, so the fair value moved +0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $28.66 to $42.26. It is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 10,454 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way have held 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. For insurers, the grade looks at comparable companies, the spread of outcomes and whether the valuation methods agree. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model compares the business with eight comparable companies. First American Financial Corporation (FAF) and Employers Holdings, Inc. (EIG) each have a fair value of their own on the site. The other six, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT), Enact Holdings Inc. (ACT), Radian Group Inc. (RDN), NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH), Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF) and Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO), have no ver
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does MTG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MTG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.1%.
How does MTG compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to MGIC Investment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $67.71 | $82.42 | +21.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $47.50 | $50.47 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | $64.97 | $62.41 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | $35.84 | $47.84 | +33.5% | Low evidence grade |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | $43.31 | $55.61 | +28.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $41.39 | $54.85 | +32.5% | Low evidence grade |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | $71.29 | $66.24 | -7.1% | Low evidence grade |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $47.35 | $22.85 | -51.7% | Overvalued |
MGIC Investment at a glance
MGIC Investment Corporation, through its various subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance alongside a range of other mortgage credit risk management solutions and ancillary services.
- Market value
- $5.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- -0.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MGIC Investment on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MTG was $35.31. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $35.38, a change of +0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MGIC Investment's valuation
Is MGIC Investment stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MTG's fair value at $35.38 a share against a last close of $28.64, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MTG's fair value?
$35.38 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $29.71 to $41.59.
What price range does the model give MTG?
$28.66 to $42.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has MTG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.6% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MTG is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MTG
The model holds no idea open on MTG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MTG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.