NASDAQ: DBX · Infrastructure Software
Dropbox (DBX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Dropbox (DBX) at $50.77 a share. The stock last closed at $35.76, which puts the model's fair value 42.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Dropbox, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $50.20 to $50.77 (+1.1%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $35.76 is 42.0% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 29 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give DBX?
The calibrated range for DBX over 63 trading days is $31.09 to $42.47. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DBX's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.41 to $70.24. In 78% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Dropbox, Inc. engages in providing file backup, sync, and sharing solutions. Its products include Dropbox, Dropbox Reply, Dropbox Sign, Dropbox Reclaim.ai, Dropbox Dash, Dropbox DocSend, Dropbox Fax, and Dropbox Early access.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $50.77 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $50.20, so the fair value moved +1.1%. In the model's own words, analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $31.09 to $42.47, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium. It measures input completeness, peer count and agreement, and outcome spread, not whether the fair value is right.
Dropbox scores 67 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 91, with ROIC of 72.6% against a peer median of 23.8%. Growth quality scores 30, with trailing revenue growth of -1.1% against a peer median of 19.7%. Balance sheet scores 37, with net debt to EBITDA of 3.39x against a peer median of 1.01x. The model compares Dropbox with Qualys, UiPath, ACI Worldwide, Akamai Technologies and GoDaddy.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does DBX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DBX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.6% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across DBX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in DBX
How does DBX score on business quality?
Dropbox's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 72.6%ROIC | 23.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 2.16xFCF / net income | 2.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 30 | -1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 19.5%Net buybacks / market value | 2.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 37 | 3.39xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.6 pts |
How does DBX compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Dropbox in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | $199.63 | $256.51 | +28.5% | Undervalued |
| PATH UiPath Inc. | $13.01 | $18.54 | +42.5% | Undervalued |
| WEX WEX Inc. | $179.78 | $149.96 | -16.6% | Low evidence grade |
| BOX Box, Inc. | $43.55 | $40.49 | -7.0% | Data under review |
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $70.70 | $93.05 | +31.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $59.52 | $56.41 | -5.2% | Fairly valued |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $77.84 | $98.30 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $120.12 | $136.99 | +14.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for DBX, the peer-implied price, is $87.19 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Dropbox at a glance
Dropbox, Inc. engages in providing file backup, sync, and sharing solutions. Its products include Dropbox, Dropbox Reply, Dropbox Sign, Dropbox Reclaim.ai, Dropbox Dash, Dropbox DocSend, Dropbox Fax, and Dropbox Early access.
- Market value
- $7.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- 0.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. DBX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dropbox on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for DBX was $50.20. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $50.77, a change of +1.1%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dropbox's valuation
Is Dropbox stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DBX reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $50.77 a share against a last close of $35.76, a gap of +42.0%.
What is DBX's fair value?
$50.77 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.41 to $70.24.
What price range does the model give DBX?
$31.09 to $42.47 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has DBX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -18.2% around the report of 20 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DBX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on DBX
The model has an idea open on DBX under Scorecard Leaders since 29 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on DBX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.