NYSE: DOCN · Infrastructure Software
DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) at $136.66 a share. The stock last closed at $140.07, which puts the model's fair value 2.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. provides a global cloud computing environment. Its reach extends across North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $136.66 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was +8.4% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $126.12. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $111.19 to $209.74, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 62 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scored 100 with ROIC 9.0%, and its growth quality scored 73 with trailing revenue growth of 15.5%. Faircurve's model compares it with Akamai Technologies, Inc., Nutanix, Inc., Gen Digital Inc., GoDaddy Inc., F5, Inc., VeriSign, Inc., and Corpay, Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 15.2%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DOCN?
The calibrated range for DOCN over 63 trading days is $111.19 to $209.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DOCN's own options imply (89% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $90.99 to $201.15. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DOCN score on business quality?
DigitalOcean Holdings's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 9.0%ROIC | 0.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 2 | 0.06xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 73 | 15.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 60 | 1.96xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 5.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.7 pts |
How does DOCN compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to DigitalOcean Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $108.92 | $124.31 | +14.1% | Fairly valued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $72.29 | $60.80 | -15.9% | Overvalued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $21.99 | $31.78 | +44.5% | Undervalued |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $97.21 | $126.29 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $454.04 | $449.07 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $288.32 | $262.57 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $394.60 | $339.32 | -14.0% | Fairly valued |
| ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $196.60 | $240.89 | +22.5% | Low evidence grade |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does DOCN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
DigitalOcean Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DOCN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 25.8% over one month.
How DOCN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -2.1% |
| 5 May 2026 | +48.0% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | +0.1% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +21.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +35.0% |
| 6 May 2025 | -9.3% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | +18.2% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -12.2% |
DigitalOcean Holdings at a glance
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., through its various operating entities, provides a global cloud computing environment with reach across North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond.
- Market value
- $16.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 2.65
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices DigitalOcean Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DOCN was $126.12. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $136.66, a change of +8.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about DigitalOcean Holdings's valuation
Is DigitalOcean Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DOCN reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $136.66 a share against a last close of $140.07, a gap of -2.4%.
What is DOCN's fair value?
$136.66 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $90.99 to $201.15.
What price range does the model give DOCN?
$111.19 to $209.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does DigitalOcean Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DOCN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +48.0% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DOCN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.