NYSE: ALG · Industrial Machinery
Alamo Group (ALG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Alamo Group (ALG) at $168.28 a share. The stock last closed at $161.01, which puts the model's fair value 4.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Alamo Group Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Alamo Group Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, distribution, and servicing of equipment crucial for managing vegetation and maintaining public and private infrastructure.
Faircurve's model valued Alamo Group Inc. on 30 Sep 2026 at a fair value of $168.28 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $169.38, so the fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $141.18 to $205.19, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The overall quality score for the business is 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. The comparable companies the model uses are Enerpac Tool Group Corp., Crane NXT, Co., Tennant Company, Mueller Water Products, Inc., Standex International Corporation, Badger Meter, Inc., and Mirion Technologies, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 6.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ALG?
The calibrated range for ALG over 63 trading days is $141.18 to $205.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $139.07 to $201.15. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ALG score on business quality?
Alamo Group's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 14 | 8.6%ROIC | 19.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 57 | 1.34xFCF / net income | 1.12x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | -1.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 3.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 0.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.94x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does ALG compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Alamo Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPAC Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | $35.64 | $37.30 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| CXT Crane NXT, Co. | $48.78 | $55.80 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| KAI Kadant Inc. | $268.83 | $297.10 | +10.5% | Data under review |
| TNC Tennant Company | $67.12 | $66.74 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $21.66 | $25.74 | +18.8% | Undervalued |
| SXI Standex International Corporation | $288.59 | $237.37 | -17.7% | Overvalued |
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $127.77 | $132.83 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $14.60 | $15.53 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
When does ALG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Alamo Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ALG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +7.1% |
| 4 May 2026 | -2.6% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | -13.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -5.8% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -1.8% |
| 8 May 2025 | +24.6% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -5.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +8.3% |
Alamo Group at a glance
Alamo Group Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, distribution, and servicing of equipment crucial for managing vegetation and maintaining public and private infrastructure.
- Market value
- $1.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Alamo Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ALG was $169.38. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $168.28, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Alamo Group's valuation
Is Alamo Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALG reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $168.28 a share against a last close of $161.01, a gap of +4.5%.
What is ALG's fair value?
$168.28 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $139.07 to $201.15.
What price range does the model give ALG?
$141.18 to $205.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Alamo Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.6% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.