NASDAQ: ASTE · Industrial Machinery
Astec Industries (ASTE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Astec Industries (ASTE) at $47.85 a share. The stock last closed at $42.00, which puts the model's fair value 13.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Astec Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Astec Industries, Inc. is a company dedicated to the creation, production, and global distribution of specialized machinery and essential components.
On 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $47.85 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was -0.9% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $48.28. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $40.15 to $58.34, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and held the price 60% of the time. The model graded the evidence as Medium.
The overall quality score was 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Tennant Company (TNC), Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC), Alamo Group Inc. (ALG), Crane NXT, Co. (CXT), Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA), Standex International Corporation (SXI), and Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves from the close before to the close after was 13.3%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ASTE?
The calibrated range for ASTE over 63 trading days is $40.15 to $58.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.06 to $67.60. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ASTE score on business quality?
Astec Industries's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 15 | 3.6%ROIC | 10.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 82 | 1.62xFCF / net income | 0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 80 | 8.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 23 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 23 | 2.97xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 90 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does ASTE compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Astec Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNC Tennant Company | $67.12 | $66.74 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| EPAC Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | $35.64 | $37.30 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| ALG Alamo Group Inc. | $161.01 | $168.28 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| CXT Crane NXT, Co. | $48.78 | $55.80 | +14.4% | Fairly valued |
| KAI Kadant Inc. | $268.83 | $297.10 | +10.5% | Data under review |
| MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $21.66 | $25.74 | +18.8% | Undervalued |
| SXI Standex International Corporation | $288.59 | $237.37 | -17.7% | Overvalued |
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $127.77 | $132.83 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
When does ASTE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Astec Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 17.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ASTE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -15.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -15.5% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +6.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -1.7% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +6.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +18.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +15.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +11.6% |
Astec Industries at a glance
Astec Industries, Inc. is a company dedicated to the creation, production, and global distribution of specialized machinery and essential components.
- Market value
- $949M
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Astec Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ASTE was $48.28. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $47.85, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Astec Industries's valuation
Is Astec Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ASTE reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $47.85 a share against a last close of $42.00, a gap of +13.9%.
What is ASTE's fair value?
$47.85 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.06 to $67.60.
What price range does the model give ASTE?
$40.15 to $58.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Astec Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ASTE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.3% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ASTE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.