NYSE: ARI · Mortgage REITs
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) at $3.90 a share. The stock last closed at $6.20, which puts the model's fair value 37.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a core focus on the U.S. market.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $3.90 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $4.21, and the fair value moved -7.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $3.25 to $4.73, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The model compares Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. with Adamas Trust, Inc., PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc., Ellington Financial Inc., and Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 2.0%, ignoring direction. The moves were -0.6% on 10 Aug 2026, -3.2% on 28 Apr 2026, -0.1% on 10 Feb 2026, -3.1% on 30 Oct 2025, -0.9% on 29 Jul 2025, +14.8% on 24 Apr 2025, +9.7% on 10 Feb 2025, and +0.6% on 30 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ARI?
The calibrated range for ARI over 63 trading days is $3.25 to $4.73. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $3.30 to $4.56. In 1% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ARI compare with similar companies?
The companies in mortgage reits closest to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | $7.81 | $9.76 | +25.0% | Undervalued |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | $3.56 | $7.63 | +114.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $7.80 | $8.27 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.27 | $6.09 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | $11.59 | $12.36 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | $3.53 | $2.93 | -17.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $13.59 | $22.12 | +62.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $10.90 | $7.44 | -31.7% | Overvalued |
When does ARI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ARI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | -0.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -3.2% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | -0.1% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -3.1% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -0.9% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +14.8% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | +9.7% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +0.6% |
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance at a glance
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a core focus on the U.S. market.
- Market value
- $812M
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Mortgage REITs
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -80.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ARI was $4.21. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $3.90, a change of -7.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's valuation
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARI reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $3.90 a share against a last close of $6.20, a gap of -37.1%.
What is ARI's fair value?
$3.90 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $3.30 to $4.56.
What price range does the model give ARI?
$3.25 to $4.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.8% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARI is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.