Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $11.12 · Current price: $10.94 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on ARI

Monte Carlo simulations indicate APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA (ARI) is Fairly Valued at its current price of $10.94. Our analysis points to a median fair value (P50) of $11.12, suggesting a modest +1.6% upside relative to the present market quote. This suggests that the market price closely reflects the underlying intrinsic value, making a compelling case for its current valuation based on thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The verdict of Fairly Valued suggests limited immediate arbitrage opportunities for investors solely relying on this P50 estimate.

How ARI stacks up against Real Estate

Within the Real Estate sector, ARI's operational and financial health is currently designated as "unrated". This "unrated" quality tier signifies that a specific benchmark of its financial and operational strength against sector peers is not presently available through our standard scoring methodologies. While the median fair value stands at $11.12 and the current price is $10.94, investors in the Real Estate sector considering ARI should note the absence of a qualitative tier for comparative purposes, relying predominantly on the quantitative fair value assessment at this time.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINA, the current price of $10.94 aligns closely with the median fair value of $11.12, validating the Fairly Valued verdict. While the P50 suggests a minor +1.6% upside, this narrow gap indicates that ARI is not significantly mispriced according to our Monte Carlo models. Investors seeking a deeper understanding beyond this P50 fair value, including specific downside scenarios and the bull case distribution, should leverage FairCurve. Sign up for a free FairCurve account to access the full bear/bull distribution and track ARI's fair value as new fundamentals are released.