NYSE: ATO · Regulated Gas
Atmos Energy (ATO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Atmos Energy (ATO) at $152.83 a share. The stock last closed at $157.17, which puts the model's fair value 2.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Atmos Energy Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Atmos Energy Corporation, alongside its subsidiaries, is a U.S.-based enterprise primarily involved in the regulated distribution of natural gas, as well as operating pipeline and storage facilities.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $152.83 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $156.01, so the fair value moved -2.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $119.80 to $249.42, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's confidence grade is High.
The business scores 61 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 93 with ROIC 5.8% compared to the peer median 5.5%, while its earnings quality score is 16, with FCF / net income -1.44x versus the peer median -0.84x. The model compares Atmos Energy Corporation with NiSource Inc (NI), UGI Corporation (UGI), Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX), Black Hills Corporation (BKH), New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR), ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), and MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from -2.9% to +3.9%, with a median size of 1.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ATO?
The calibrated range for ATO over 63 trading days is $128.22 to $186.35. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $114.67 to $198.37. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ATO score on business quality?
Atmos Energy's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 5.8%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 16 | -1.44xFCF / net income | -0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 12.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 22 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | 3.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 4.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does ATO compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to Atmos Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NI NiSource Inc | $39.43 | $39.04 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $37.20 | $43.13 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $82.69 | $74.95 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | $70.96 | $70.97 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $51.59 | $51.92 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| SR Spire Inc. | $77.54 | $59.60 | -23.1% | Data under review |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $72.57 | $83.50 | +15.1% | Undervalued |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $18.61 | $18.08 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
When does ATO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Atmos Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ATO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -0.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -2.9% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +3.9% |
| 7 May 2025 | -0.4% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +1.2% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.5% |
Atmos Energy at a glance
Atmos Energy Corporation, alongside its subsidiaries, is a U.S.-based enterprise primarily involved in the regulated distribution of natural gas, as well as operating pipeline and storage facilities.
- Market value
- $26.2B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Atmos Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ATO was $156.01. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $152.83, a change of -2.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Atmos Energy's valuation
Is Atmos Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ATO reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $152.83 a share against a last close of $157.17, a gap of -2.8%.
What is ATO's fair value?
$152.83 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $114.67 to $198.37.
What price range does the model give ATO?
$128.22 to $186.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Atmos Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ATO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +3.9% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ATO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.