NYSE: MUSA · Specialty Retail
Murphy USA (MUSA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Murphy USA (MUSA) at $616.05 a share. The stock last closed at $509.34, which puts the model's fair value 21.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Murphy USA Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $616.05, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $509.34 is 21.0% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 6% either way. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 22 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MUSA?
The calibrated range for MUSA over 63 trading days is $460.13 to $577.06. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MUSA's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $440.69 to $832.02. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Murphy USA Inc. specialises in retail gasoline and a variety of convenience store items. It runs a network of retail outlets under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express and QuickChek banners.
Faircurve's model gives Murphy USA a fair value of $616.05 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on the run of 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $618.76, so the fair value moved -0.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $454.11 to $586.47. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Murphy USA scores 78 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Stability scores 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.1 pts against a peer median of 1.1 pts. Capital discipline scores 91, with net buybacks at 3.8% of market value against a peer median of 1.9%. Balance sheet is the lowest factor at 60, with net debt / EBITDA of 2.03x against a peer median of 2.71x. The model compares the company with GameStop Corp. (GME), Etsy, Inc. (ETSY), DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) and Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MUSA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Murphy USA's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MUSA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MUSA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MUSA
How does MUSA score on business quality?
Murphy USA's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 22.3%ROIC | 21.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 65 | -4.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 91 | 3.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 60 | 2.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.71x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does MUSA compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Murphy USA in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | $22.05 | $21.82 | -1.0% | Low evidence grade |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.27 | $24.86 | +2.4% | Fairly valued |
| ETSY Etsy, Inc. | $89.86 | $96.64 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $137.08 | $151.65 | +10.6% | Fairly valued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $236.19 | $234.83 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $35.10 | $32.62 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $93.87 | $120.86 | +28.8% | Undervalued |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $22.61 | $25.43 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MUSA, the peer-implied price, is $1,062.89 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Murphy USA at a glance
Murphy USA Inc. specializes in providing retail gasoline and a variety of convenience store items. It manages a network of retail outlets operating under its well-known banners: Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek.
- Market value
- $9.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $23.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MUSA was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Murphy USA on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MUSA was $618.76. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $616.05, a change of -0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Murphy USA's valuation
Is Murphy USA stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MUSA reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $616.05 a share against a last close of $509.34, a gap of +21.0%.
What is MUSA's fair value?
$616.05 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $440.69 to $832.02.
What price range does the model give MUSA?
$460.13 to $577.06 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Murphy USA report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MUSA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.0% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MUSA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MUSA
The model has an idea open on MUSA under Scorecard Leaders since 22 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MUSA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.