NASDAQ: TRIP · Travel Services
Tripadvisor (TRIP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Tripadvisor (TRIP) at $9.67 a share. The stock last closed at $8.51, which puts the model's fair value 13.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Tripadvisor, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Tripadvisor, Inc. functions as an online travel enterprise, organizing its operations into two main segments: Hotels, Media & Platform, and Experiences & Dining.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $9.67 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $10.16, and the fair value moved -4.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $7.27 to $11.20, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 53 out of 100 against comparable companies, which included Travel + Leisure Co., Expedia Group, Inc., Carnival Corporation & plc, Airbnb, Inc., and Booking Holdings Inc. The stock moved -22.9% after its earnings report on 6 Aug 2026, -6.5% on 7 May 2026, and -21.0% on 12 Feb 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TRIP?
The calibrated range for TRIP over 63 trading days is $7.27 to $11.20. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TRIP's own options imply (61% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.33 to $12.55. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TRIP score on business quality?
Tripadvisor's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 42 | 4.7%ROIC | 5.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 26.56xFCF / net income | 0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 29 | 3.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 5.1%Net buybacks / market value | 2.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 0.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.92x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 5.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does TRIP compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel services closest to Tripadvisor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | $62.92 | $87.39 | +38.9% | Undervalued |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $15.14 | $26.73 | +76.6% | Gap wider than 60% |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $265.00 | $329.19 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $25.76 | $35.51 | +37.8% | Undervalued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $277.74 | $258.69 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $162.43 | $151.05 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $159.02 | $189.22 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
When does TRIP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tripadvisor's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 2 Oct 2026, TRIP's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 17.6% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
How TRIP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -22.9% |
| 7 May 2026 | -6.5% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -21.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +9.0% |
| 7 May 2025 | +3.6% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -14.6% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -6.2% |
Tripadvisor at a glance
Tripadvisor, Inc. functions as an online travel enterprise, organizing its operations into two main segments: Hotels, Media & Platform, and Experiences & Dining.
- Market value
- $979M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -16.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 1.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tripadvisor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TRIP was $10.16. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $9.67, a change of -4.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tripadvisor's valuation
Is Tripadvisor stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TRIP reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $9.67 a share against a last close of $8.51, a gap of +13.6%.
What is TRIP's fair value?
$9.67 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.33 to $12.55.
What price range does the model give TRIP?
$7.27 to $11.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Tripadvisor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TRIP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -22.9% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TRIP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.