NYSE: TNL · Travel Services
Travel + Leisure (TNL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Travel + Leisure (TNL) at $82.46 a share. The stock last closed at $75.05, which puts the model's fair value 9.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Travel + Leisure Co.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $89.18 to $82.46 (-7.5%). The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $75.05 is 9.9% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 17 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give TNL?
The calibrated range for TNL over 63 trading days is $66.52 to $87.05. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TNL's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $46.78 to $123.51. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Travel + Leisure Co. is a global hospitality enterprise. It delivers a diverse range of services and products through two primary divisions, Vacation Ownership and Travel & Membership.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Travel + Leisure Co. at $82.46 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $89.18, so the fair value moved -7.5%. In the model's own words, the quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lowering the fair value, and that was most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $67.41 to $86.53. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives Travel + Leisure Co. an overall quality score of 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. Stability scores 71, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.8 pts against a peer median of 2.6 pts. Capital discipline scores 64, with net buybacks at 7.9% of market value against a peer median of 2.2%. Balance sheet scores 7, with net debt to EBITDA at 8.36x against a peer median of 3.69x. The model compares the company with Tripadvisor, Expedia Group, Carnival, Airbnb and Booking Holdings, each with its own fair value on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does TNL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Travel + Leisure's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TNL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.7% over one month.
On 2 Nov 2026 TNL moved 5.4% in one session, against the 2.5% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across TNL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in TNL
How does TNL score on business quality?
Travel + Leisure's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 57 | 8.9%ROIC | 8.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 52 | 1.54xFCF / net income | 1.22x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | 4.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 7.9%Net buybacks / market value | 2.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 7 | 8.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.69x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does TNL compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel services closest to Travel + Leisure in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $17.76 | $25.79 | +45.2% | Low evidence grade |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $7.38 | $11.59 | +57.0% | Undervalued |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $272.48 | $317.85 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $29.59 | $39.25 | +32.6% | Undervalued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $322.73 | $321.63 | -0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $170.13 | $160.09 | -5.9% | Data under review |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $168.72 | $194.90 | +15.5% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for TNL, the peer-implied price, is $100.36 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Travel + Leisure at a glance
Travel + Leisure Co. functions as a global hospitality enterprise, delivering a diverse range of services and products through its two primary divisions: Vacation Ownership and Travel & Membership.
- Market value
- $4.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. TNL was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Travel + Leisure on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for TNL was $89.18. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $82.46, a change of -7.5%. The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Travel + Leisure's valuation
Is Travel + Leisure stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TNL reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $82.46 a share against a last close of $75.05, a gap of +9.9%.
What is TNL's fair value?
$82.46 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $46.78 to $123.51.
What price range does the model give TNL?
$66.52 to $87.05 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Travel + Leisure report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TNL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.5% around the report of 22 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TNL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on TNL
The model holds no idea open on TNL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on TNL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.