NASDAQ: QLYS · Infrastructure Software
Qualys (QLYS) fair value and price range
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Qualys (QLYS) at $203.97 a share. The stock last closed at $193.00, which puts the model's fair value 5.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Qualys, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Qualys, Inc., founded in 1999 and headquartered in Foster City, California, specializes in delivering cloud-based solutions for information technology (IT) management, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance to organizations globally.
Faircurve's model on 30 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $203.97 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a +3.4% move since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $197.17. The model’s calibrated range over 63 trading days is $171.13 to $248.70, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business has an overall quality score of 80 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scores 100 (ROIC 52.6%, peer median -3.8%), earnings quality 75 (FCF / net income 1.52x), and growth quality 41 (Revenue growth, trailing 10.1%, peer median 23.2%). The model compares it with UiPath Inc. (PATH), ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW), Dropbox, Inc. (DBX), NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT), and GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 11.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give QLYS?
The calibrated range for QLYS over 63 trading days is $171.13 to $248.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $146.99 to $280.48. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does QLYS score on business quality?
Qualys's overall quality score is 80 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 52.6%ROIC | -3.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 1.52xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | 10.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 23.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 88 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | -0.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.9 pts |
How does QLYS compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Qualys in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEX WEX Inc. | $169.10 | $132.27 | -21.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PATH UiPath Inc. | $13.12 | $16.38 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $50.15 | $51.15 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | $33.90 | $38.53 | +13.7% | Fairly valued |
| BOX Box, Inc. | $34.49 | $28.59 | -17.1% | Data under review |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $36.17 | $44.74 | +23.7% | Low evidence grade |
| NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $40.96 | $40.10 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $97.21 | $126.29 | +29.9% | Undervalued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does QLYS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Qualys's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How QLYS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +18.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | -1.8% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -14.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +16.8% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -4.0% |
| 6 May 2025 | +9.1% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -7.1% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +27.8% |
Qualys at a glance
Qualys, Inc., founded in 1999 and headquartered in Foster City, California, specializes in delivering cloud-based solutions for information technology (IT) management, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance to organizations globally.
- Market value
- $6.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $781M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.42
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Qualys on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for QLYS was $197.17. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $203.97, a change of +3.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Qualys's valuation
Is Qualys stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts QLYS's fair value at $203.97 a share against a last close of $193.00, as of 30 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is QLYS's fair value?
$203.97 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $146.99 to $280.48.
What price range does the model give QLYS?
$171.13 to $248.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Qualys report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has QLYS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.8% around the report of 5 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for QLYS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.