NYSE: NOG · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) fair value and price range
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) at $34.53 a share. The stock last closed at $23.83, which puts the model's fair value 44.9% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. operates as an independent energy enterprise within the United States.
On 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $34.53 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $37.30, so the fair value moved -7.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $20.69 to $29.43, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, but the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. had an overall quality score of 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Talos Energy Inc. (TALO), Crescent Energy Company (CRGY), California Resources Corp (CRC), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), and Matador Resources Company (MTDR). Around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, the moves were: 6 Aug 2026 +9.3%, 28 Apr 2026 +4.0%, 25 Feb 2026 -3.4%, 6 Nov 2025 +5.5%, 31 Jul 2025 -12.5%, 29 Apr 2025 +19.8%, 19 Feb 2025 +0.5%, 5 Nov 2024 +13.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NOG?
The calibrated range for NOG over 63 trading days is $28.97 to $42.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.76 to $58.71. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NOG score on business quality?
Northern Oil and Gas's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 73 | 11.6%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 49 | -3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 32 | 2.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 2 | 8.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 16.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 11.3 pts |
How does NOG compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Northern Oil and Gas in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | $16.78 | $24.70 | +47.2% | Undervalued |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.02 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $37.11 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.20 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $73.80 | +37.9% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does NOG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Northern Oil and Gas's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How NOG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +9.3% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +4.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -3.4% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +5.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -12.5% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +19.8% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +0.5% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +13.4% |
Northern Oil and Gas at a glance
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. operates as an independent energy enterprise within the United States.
- Market value
- $2.5B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.03
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Northern Oil and Gas on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NOG was $37.30. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $34.53, a change of -7.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Northern Oil and Gas's valuation
Is Northern Oil and Gas stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts NOG's fair value at $34.53 a share against a last close of $23.83, as of 27 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is NOG's fair value?
$34.53 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.76 to $58.71.
What price range does the model give NOG?
$28.97 to $42.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Northern Oil and Gas report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NOG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.8% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NOG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.