NYSE: BYD · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Boyd Gaming (BYD) fair value and price range
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Boyd Gaming (BYD) at $79.21 a share. The stock last closed at $70.46, which puts the model's fair value 12.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Boyd Gaming Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $77.99 to $79.21 (+1.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $70.46 is 12.4% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 22 Oct 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 8% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give BYD?
The calibrated range for BYD over 63 trading days is $64.38 to $80.18. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BYD's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $41.51 to $132.04. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online segments.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $79.21 a share for Boyd Gaming Corporation on 10 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 3 Oct 2026, gave $77.99, and the fair value moved +1.6% because the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $64.38 to $80.18, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model's overall quality score for Boyd Gaming Corporation is 40 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Profitability scores 61 with an ROIC of 11.6% against a peer median of 8.9%. Earnings quality scores 0, as FCF / net income is 0.02x against a peer median of 1.27x. Capital discipline scores 50, with Net buybacks / market value at 13.1% against a peer median of 3.8%. Balance sheet scores 70, with Net debt / EBITDA at 1.06x against a peer median of 3.05x. Stability scores 11, with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y, at 6.6 pts against a peer median of 2.5 pts. The model compares it with Vail Resorts, Inc. and Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does BYD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Boyd Gaming's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 37 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BYD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BYD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BYD
How does BYD score on business quality?
Boyd Gaming's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 61 | 11.6%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | 0.02xFCF / net income | 1.27x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 4.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 13.1%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 1.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 11 | 6.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does BYD compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Boyd Gaming in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $152.57 | $117.87 | -22.7% | Overvalued |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $81.06 | $85.20 | +5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.47 | $34.97 | +18.7% | Low evidence grade |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $108.54 | $105.58 | -2.7% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $29.40 | $1.22 | -95.9% | Data under review |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $75.69 | $57.58 | -23.9% | Low evidence grade |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $50.83 | $68.53 | +34.8% | Undervalued |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $15.37 | $17.13 | +11.5% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BYD, the peer-implied price, is $94.96 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Boyd Gaming at a glance
Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online segments.
- Market value
- $5.0B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.52
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Boyd Gaming on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BYD was $77.99. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $79.21, a change of +1.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Boyd Gaming's valuation
Is Boyd Gaming stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BYD's fair value at $79.21 a share against a last close of $70.46, as of 10 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is BYD's fair value?
$79.21 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $41.51 to $132.04.
What price range does the model give BYD?
$64.38 to $80.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Boyd Gaming report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BYD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.4% around the report of 24 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BYD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on BYD
The model holds no idea open on BYD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on BYD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.