NASDAQ: CHDN · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Churchill Downs (CHDN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Churchill Downs (CHDN) at $97.75 a share. The stock last closed at $98.18, which puts the model's fair value 0.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Churchill Downs Incorporated.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $86.85 to $97.75 (+12.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $98.18 is level with it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CHDN?
The calibrated range for CHDN over 63 trading days is $87.94 to $112.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CHDN's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.50 to $156.68. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading U.S. entertainment enterprise focused on horse racing, online wagering, and general gaming activities.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $97.75 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up from $86.85 on the previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, a move of +12.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $87.62 to $112.45. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at input completeness, comparable companies and the width of outcomes.
Churchill Downs scores 56 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Stability is the highest factor at 78, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 3.1 points against a peer median of 6.5 points. Earnings quality scores 73, with FCF to net income at 1.17x against a peer median of 2.11x. The balance sheet is the lowest at 29, with net debt to EBITDA at 3.93x against a peer median of 6.15x. The model compares the company with Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) and Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CHDN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Churchill Downs's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CHDN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CHDN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CHDN
How does CHDN score on business quality?
Churchill Downs's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 48 | 9.3%ROIC | 6.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.17xFCF / net income | 2.11x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 55 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 15.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 29 | 3.93xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 3.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.5 pts |
How does CHDN compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Churchill Downs in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.18 | $28.86 | -1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $32.54 | $2.12 | -93.5% | Data under review |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $79.32 | $60.85 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $158.54 | $122.39 | -22.8% | Overvalued |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $77.07 | $84.34 | +9.4% | Low evidence grade |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $107.18 | $112.85 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $47.96 | $71.53 | +49.1% | Undervalued |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $17.34 | $18.47 | +6.5% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CHDN, the peer-implied price, is $115.06 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Churchill Downs at a glance
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) is a leading U.S. entertainment enterprise focused on horse racing, online wagering, and general gaming activities.
- Market value
- $6.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Churchill Downs on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CHDN was $86.85. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $97.75, a change of +12.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Churchill Downs's valuation
Is Churchill Downs stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CHDN's fair value at $97.75 a share against a last close of $98.18, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CHDN's fair value?
$97.75 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.50 to $156.68.
What price range does the model give CHDN?
$87.94 to $112.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Churchill Downs report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHDN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.8% around the report of 28 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHDN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CHDN
The model holds no idea open on CHDN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CHDN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.