NASDAQ: PENN · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
PENN Entertainment (PENN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values PENN Entertainment (PENN) at $18.47 a share. The stock last closed at $17.34, which puts the model's fair value 6.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. PENN Entertainment, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $17.10 to $18.47 (+8.0%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $17.34 is 6.5% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 25 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 18% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PENN?
The calibrated range for PENN over 63 trading days is $14.44 to $21.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PENN's own options imply (62% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $46.77. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
PENN Entertainment, Inc. offers entertainment, sports media and casino gaming services across North America. It does this through various subsidiaries.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $18.47 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $17.10, so the fair value moved +8.0%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $14.68 to $20.54, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve's model gives PENN Entertainment an overall quality score of 44 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its earnings quality scores 83, the highest of its six factors, while its profitability scores 0. Profitability has a ROIC of -5.8%, against a peer median of 8.9%. Stability scores 33, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 6.4 pts, against a peer median of 3.5 pts. The model compares the company with Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI), Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) and Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN), each of which has a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PENN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PENN Entertainment's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PENN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PENN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PENN
How does PENN score on business quality?
PENN Entertainment's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -5.8%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 65 | 5.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 42 | 5.4%Net buybacks / market value | 5.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -102.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.18x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 6.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.5 pts |
How does PENN compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to PENN Entertainment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | $109.34 | $108.28 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $47.96 | $71.53 | +49.1% | Undervalued |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $107.18 | $112.85 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $77.07 | $84.34 | +9.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $158.54 | $122.39 | -22.8% | Overvalued |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.18 | $28.86 | -1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $98.18 | $97.75 | -0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $32.54 | $2.12 | -93.5% | Data under review |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PENN, the peer-implied price, is $22.39 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
PENN Entertainment at a glance
PENN Entertainment, Inc., along with its various subsidiaries, offers a comprehensive range of entertainment, sports media, and casino gaming services across North America.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.88
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PENN Entertainment on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PENN was $17.10. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $18.47, a change of +8.0%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PENN Entertainment's valuation
Is PENN Entertainment stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PENN's fair value at $18.47 a share against a last close of $17.34, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PENN's fair value?
$18.47 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $46.77.
What price range does the model give PENN?
$14.44 to $21.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does PENN Entertainment report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PENN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.7% around the report of 26 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PENN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PENN
The model holds no idea open on PENN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PENN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.