NASDAQ: PENN ยท Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
PENN Entertainment (PENN) fair value and price range
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values PENN Entertainment (PENN) at $16.81 a share. The stock last closed at $16.45, which puts the model's fair value 2.2% above the price. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. PENN Entertainment, Inc.
What price range does the model give PENN?
The calibrated range for PENN over 63 trading days is $14.83 to $20.01. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PENN's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $44.39. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PENN score on business quality?
PENN Entertainment's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -5.8%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 5.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 5.2%Net buybacks / market value | 3.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -102.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 20 | 6.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does PENN compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to PENN Entertainment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | $121.47 | $120.18 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $50.91 | $58.89 | +15.7% | Undervalued |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $103.02 | $100.90 | -2.1% | Low model confidence |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $139.80 | $115.35 | -17.5% | Overvalued |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $72.97 | $81.54 | +11.7% | Low model confidence |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $81.91 | $77.23 | -5.7% | Low model confidence |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.64 | $28.97 | -2.3% | Low model confidence |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $81.68 | $52.02 | -36.3% | Low model confidence |
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PENN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PENN Entertainment's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PENN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
How PENN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +2.9% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +16.7% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +24.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -11.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.4% |
| 8 May 2025 | +4.7% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +5.4% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +6.6% |
PENN Entertainment at a glance
PENN Entertainment, Inc., along with its various subsidiaries, offers a comprehensive range of entertainment, sports media, and casino gaming services across North America.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PENN Entertainment on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PENN was $17.93. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $16.81, a change of -6.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PENN Entertainment's valuation
Is PENN Entertainment stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PENN's fair value at $16.81 a share against a last close of $16.45, as of 19 Sep 2026. The model has low confidence in this valuation, so no verdict is shown. Low confidence means the inputs or the peer comparison behind the number are thin, and the fair value is a rough guide.
What is PENN's fair value?
$16.81 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $44.39.
What price range does the model give PENN?
$14.83 to $20.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does PENN Entertainment report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PENN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.7% around the report of 26 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for PENN is low. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.