NYSE: MTN · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Vail Resorts (MTN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Vail Resorts (MTN) at $122.39 a share. The stock last closed at $158.54, which puts the model's fair value 22.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Vail Resorts, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $118.40 to $122.39 (+3.4%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $158.54 is 22.8% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 9 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MTN?
The calibrated range for MTN over 63 trading days is $138.13 to $187.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MTN's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $79.93 to $171.25. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Vail Resorts, Inc. oversees mountain resorts and urban ski areas across the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Vail Resorts at $122.39 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $118.40, so the fair value moved +3.4%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $135.16 to $179.12. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence Medium. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Vail Resorts scores 44 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest factor at 94, with FCF / net income at 2.11x against a peer median of 1.07x. The balance sheet scores 10, with Net debt / EBITDA at 4.32x against a peer median of 1.49x. Growth quality scores 23, with trailing revenue growth of -4.3% against a peer median of 4.0%. The model compares the company with Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MTN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Vail Resorts's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MTN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MTN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MTN
How does MTN score on business quality?
Vail Resorts's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 26 | 8.4%ROIC | 13.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 94 | 2.11xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 23 | -4.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 53 | 0.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 10 | 4.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.49x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 65 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does MTN compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Vail Resorts in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $77.07 | $84.34 | +9.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.18 | $28.86 | -1.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $98.18 | $97.75 | -0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $107.18 | $112.85 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $32.54 | $2.12 | -93.5% | Data under review |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $79.32 | $60.85 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $47.96 | $71.53 | +49.1% | Undervalued |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $17.34 | $18.47 | +6.5% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MTN, the peer-implied price, is $37.43 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Vail Resorts at a glance
Vail Resorts, Inc., operating through its various subsidiary entities, oversees a portfolio of mountain resorts and urban ski areas located across the United States.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MTN was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Vail Resorts on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MTN was $118.40. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $122.39, a change of +3.4%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Vail Resorts's valuation
Is Vail Resorts stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MTN reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $122.39 a share against a last close of $158.54, a gap of -22.8%.
What is MTN's fair value?
$122.39 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $79.93 to $171.25.
What price range does the model give MTN?
$138.13 to $187.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Vail Resorts report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MTN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.4% around the report of 10 Dec 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MTN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MTN
The model holds no idea open on MTN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MTN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.