NASDAQ: CASH · Regional Banks
Pathward Financial (CASH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Pathward Financial (CASH) at $99.49 a share. The stock last closed at $73.96, which puts the model's fair value 34.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Pathward Financial, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Pathward Financial, Inc. serves as the parent company for Pathward, National Association, providing a broad spectrum of banking products and services throughout the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $99.49 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $90.48; the fair value moved +10.0%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $83.47 to $121.31, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as High.
The model compares Pathward Financial, Inc. with Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN), Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP), Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC), S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA), Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE), Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM), and National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -10.4% to +11.0%, with a median size of 5.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CASH?
The calibrated range for CASH over 63 trading days is $83.47 to $121.31. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $84.00 to $116.36. In 94% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CASH compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Pathward Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation | $59.07 | $57.42 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. | $62.18 | $16.56 | -73.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation | $98.89 | $112.19 | +13.4% | Undervalued |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.23 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | $49.64 | $46.61 | -6.1% | Overvalued |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $13.68 | $12.49 | -8.7% | Overvalued |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | $39.88 | $38.50 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | $38.06 | $34.44 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
When does CASH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Pathward Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 10.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 50 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CASH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -6.2% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | -10.4% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | +11.0% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -0.3% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -3.1% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +8.3% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | -0.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -4.0% |
Pathward Financial at a glance
Pathward Financial, Inc. serves as the parent company for Pathward, National Association, providing a broad spectrum of banking products and services throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Pathward Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CASH was $90.48. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $99.49, a change of +10.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Pathward Financial's valuation
Is Pathward Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CASH reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $99.49 a share against a last close of $73.96, a gap of +34.5%.
What is CASH's fair value?
$99.49 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $84.00 to $116.36.
What price range does the model give CASH?
$83.47 to $121.31 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Pathward Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CASH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.0% around the report of 22 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CASH is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.